Bundesliga winner predictor 2026/27
SC Freiburg are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 47.5 points. Hamburger SV carry the highest relegation risk at 82.5%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Bundesliga winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 27 of 207 matches played (13%) · updated 4 hours ago
Current favourite
SC Freiburg 44.4% title chance
Projected 47.5 points (range 40–55), 20 games left. Average simulated finish 2.3.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg3 pl · GD +9 | 9 | WWW | 44.4%26.1 | 93.7% | 0.0% | 47.540–55 | Average |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund3 pl · GD +6 | 9 | WWW | 25.1%12.1 | 87.0% | 0.0% | 45.138–53 | Average |
| 3 | FC Augsburg3 pl · GD +6 | 7 | WWD | 11.7%19.9 | 72.9% | 0.0% | 42.135–49 | Average |
| 4 | Bayern Munich3 pl · GD +5 | 7 | WDW | 8.4%0.5 | 64.6% | 0.1% | 40.934–48 | Average |
| 5 | RB Leipzig3 pl · GD +6 | 6 | WLW | 6.0%4.6 | 61.6% | 0.0% | 40.133–47 | Average |
| 6 | Mainz 053 pl · GD +3 | 4 | DWL | 1.4%14.0 | 29.9% | 0.1% | 35.829–43 | Average |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen3 pl · GD +3 | 4 | LWD | 0.9%2.0 | 22.7% | 0.1% | 34.527–42 | Average |
| 8 | Elversberg3 pl · GD +1 | 6 | WWL | 1.0%6.0 | 21.4% | 0.3% | 34.628–42 | Average |
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim3 pl · GD -1 | 3 | LLW | 0.2%0.1 | 9.1% | 1.8% | 31.324–39 | Average |
| 10 | Werder Bremen3 pl · GD -1 | 4 | LWD | 0.2%0.5 | 8.7% | 1.1% | 31.324–38 | Average |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln3 pl · GD -2 | 4 | WLD | 0.3%0.2 | 8.0% | 1.5% | 30.924–38 | Average |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt3 pl · GD -1 | 4 | DLW | 0.1%0.1 | 6.6% | 2.1% | 30.323–38 | Average |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart3 pl · GD -2 | 3 | LWL | 0.1%1.0 | 6.5% | 1.9% | 30.123–37 | Average |
| 14 | Schalke 043 pl · GD -1 | 4 | LDW | 0.3%0.3 | 6.1% | 2.0% | 30.123–37 | Average |
| 15 | Paderborn3 pl · GD -4 | 1 | DLL | 0.0%0.1 | 1.1% | 13.1% | 24.517–32 | Average |
| 16 | Union Berlin3 pl · GD -6 | 1 | DLL | 0.0%0.1 | 0.2% | 35.2% | 20.714–28 | Average |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach3 pl · GD -9 | 0 | LLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 58.5% | 1811–25 | Average |
| 18 | Hamburger SV3 pl · GD -12 | 0 | LLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 82.5% | 14.79–21 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Bayern Munich v Union Berlin
Fri 18 Sept
| Title chance | Bayern | Union |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 3.6% | 0.0% |
Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Eintracht | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.1% | 44.4% |
| Home win | 0.3% | 35.9% |
| Draw | 0.1% | 41.3% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 53.0% |
Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Werder | FC |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.2% | 11.7% |
| Home win | 0.4% | 7.0% |
| Draw | 0.2% | 9.6% |
| Away win | 0.1% | 15.8% |
VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | VfB | Borussia |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.1% | 25.1% |
| Home win | 0.2% | 18.0% |
| Draw | 0.1% | 22.9% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 32.7% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Bundesliga rules — 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.