EFL Championship winner predictor 2026/27
West Ham United are our current favourites for the champions, projected to finish on 63.8 points. Preston North End carry the highest relegation risk at 76.6%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
EFL Championship winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 83 of 408 matches played (20%) · updated 2 hours ago
Current favourite
West Ham United 58.5% promotion chance
Projected 63.8 points (range 55–72), 27 games left. Average simulated finish 2.9.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United7 pl · GD +11 | 14 | DWWWW | 58.5%35.4 | 33.0% | 0.0% | 63.855–72 | Average |
| 2 | Southampton7 pl · GD +10 | 10 | WDDWW | 43.1%12.2 | 43.1% | 0.0% | 61.453–70 | Average |
| 3 | Swansea City7 pl · GD +6 | 14 | WWDLW | 25.2%0.2 | 46.0% | 0.0% | 58.550–67 | Average |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers6 pl · GD +4 | 11 | WWLDW | 22.8%4.9 | 45.0% | 0.0% | 57.949–67 | Average |
| 5 | Middlesbrough7 pl · GD +4 | 14 | WDWWD | 22.1%1.7 | 46.1% | 0.0% | 5849–66 | Average |
| 6 | West Bromwich Albion7 pl · GD +3 | 14 | LDWWD | 9.2%1.9 | 35.6% | 0.1% | 54.146–63 | Average |
| 7 | Queens Park Rangers7 pl · GD +3 | 12 | WWLDD | 7.9%11.6 | 35.5% | 0.1% | 53.745–62 | Average |
| 8 | Stoke City7 pl · GD 0 | 10 | LWWDW | 2.6%1.4 | 18.4% | 0.5% | 49.541–58 | Average |
| 9 | Birmingham City7 pl · GD +1 | 10 | WDDLW | 2.2%3.6 | 19.2% | 0.7% | 49.541–58 | Average |
| 10 | Lincoln City7 pl · GD 0 | 11 | WDDWW | 1.9%1.7 | 14.4% | 0.8% | 48.640–57 | Average |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic7 pl · GD -1 | 12 | WDLDD | 1.1%2.9 | 13.4% | 1.0% | 4840–57 | Average |
| 12 | Norwich City7 pl · GD 0 | 9 | WLWWL | 1.2%1.3 | 11.0% | 1.4% | 47.139–56 | Average |
| 13 | Millwall7 pl · GD 0 | 10 | LLWLD | 0.9%10.2 | 11.4% | 1.7% | 47.239–56 | Average |
| 14 | Sheffield United7 pl · GD -1 | 9 | DWLWL | 0.5%3.1 | 8.2% | 2.5% | 45.938–54 | Average |
| 15 | Blackburn Rovers7 pl · GD 0 | 8 | LDLLW | 0.4% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 45.337–54 | Average |
| 16 | Bristol City7 pl · GD -2 | 10 | WWWLL | 0.2%13.5 | 4.3% | 4.6% | 43.935–52 | Average |
| 17 | Portsmouth6 pl · GD -1 | 7 | WLLWD | 0.3%0.2 | 3.9% | 6.1% | 43.134–52 | Average |
| 18 | Watford7 pl · GD -2 | 8 | DLLWL | 0.1%1.2 | 3.8% | 5.7% | 43.135–51 | Average |
| 19 | Wrexham7 pl · GD -4 | 7 | LWDDL | 0.0%4.5 | 0.9% | 16.3% | 38.931–47 | Average |
| 20 | Bolton Wanderers7 pl · GD -5 | 7 | LLLLW | 0.0% | 0.5% | 24.0% | 37.129–45 | Average |
| 21 | Cardiff City7 pl · GD -4 | 4 | DLLDL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 37.4% | 34.626–43 | Average |
| 22 | Derby County7 pl · GD -7 | 4 | LWLLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 56.8% | 31.924–40 | Average |
| 23 | Burnley7 pl · GD -8 | 3 | LDLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 61.1% | 31.323–39 | Average |
| 24 | Preston North End7 pl · GD -7 | 3 | LLWLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 76.6% | 28.621–37 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Millwall v West Ham United
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Millwall | West |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.9% | 58.5% |
| Home win | 2.0% | 51.5% |
| Draw | 1.0% | 57.0% |
| Away win | 0.7% | 66.3% |
Wrexham v Southampton
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Wrexham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 43.1% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 34.6% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 39.7% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 50.7% |
Birmingham City v Middlesbrough
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Birmingham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 2.2% | 22.1% |
| Home win | 3.9% | 17.1% |
| Draw | 2.1% | 20.5% |
| Away win | 1.4% | 28.7% |
Lincoln City v Swansea City
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Lincoln | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 1.9% | 25.2% |
| Home win | 2.5% | 19.3% |
| Draw | 1.3% | 23.3% |
| Away win | 0.8% | 32.7% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying EFL Championship rules — 2 automatic promotion places, 4 play-off places, 3 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.