Cymru Premier winner predictor 2026/27
The New Saints are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 66.9 points. Aberystwyth Town carry the highest relegation risk at 98.4%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Cymru Premier winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 71 of 218 matches played (33%) · updated 14 hours ago
Current favourite
The New Saints 92.0% title chance
Projected 66.9 points (range 61–73), 18 games left. Average simulated finish 1.1.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints9 pl · GD +21 | 25 | WWWWW | 92.0%19.6 | 99.5% | 0.0% | 66.961–73 | Average |
| 2 | Barry Town United9 pl · GD +12 | 22 | WWLWD | 2.9%8.1 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 54.748–61 | Average |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town9 pl · GD +14 | 19 | WLWWD | 2.1%0.8 | 53.8% | 0.0% | 54.148–61 | Average |
| 4 | Penybont9 pl · GD +8 | 21 | DDWWW | 1.1%0.8 | 37.3% | 0.0% | 52.546–59 | Average |
| 5 | Connah's Quay Nomads9 pl · GD +15 | 19 | WWDLW | 1.7%6.0 | 35.3% | 0.0% | 51.945–59 | Hard |
| 6 | Cardiff Metropolitan University8 pl · GD +9 | 14 | LWWDD | 0.1%1.9 | 9.7% | 0.0% | 46.940–53 | Average |
| 7 | Cambrian United9 pl · GD +5 | 15 | LDDWW | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 43.637–50 | Average |
| 8 | Llandudno9 pl · GD +5 | 16 | WLWLD | 0.0%2.1 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 43.537–50 | Average |
| 9 | Colwyn Bay9 pl · GD +3 | 16 | LWLWW | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 43.437–50 | Average |
| 10 | Airbus UK9 pl · GD -1 | 12 | LWWLL | 0.0%0.1 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 3630–43 | Average |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County8 pl · GD -8 | 7 | LLWDW | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.720–32 | Average |
| 12 | Briton Ferry Llansawel9 pl · GD -10 | 7 | LLLLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.519–32 | Average |
| 13 | Flint Town United9 pl · GD -13 | 2 | DLLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2014–26 | Average |
| 14 | Ammanford9 pl · GD -17 | 3 | DLLLD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.512–23 | Average |
| 15 | Trefelin9 pl · GD -20 | 2 | DLDLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 13.48–19 | Average |
| 16 | Holywell Town9 pl · GD -23 | 1 | LLDLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 13.48–19 | Average |
| 17 | Bala Town0 pl · GD 0 | 0 | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98.1% | 2.80–6 | Average |
| 18 | Aberystwyth Town0 pl · GD 0 | 0 | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98.4% | 2.80–6 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
The New Saints v Llandudno
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | The | Llandudno |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 92.0% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 93.7% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 88.8% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 85.4% | 0.2% |
Trefelin v The New Saints
Sat 26 Sept
| Title chance | Trefelin | The |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 92.0% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 84.6% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 88.1% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 93.4% |
The New Saints v Cambrian United
Sat 3 Oct
| Title chance | The | Cambrian |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 92.0% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 94.3% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 89.1% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 85.7% | 0.1% |
Holywell Town v The New Saints
Fri 9 Oct
| Title chance | Holywell | The |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 92.0% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 83.4% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 87.6% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 93.1% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Cymru Premier rules — 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.