Eredivisie winner predictor 2026/27
PSV Eindhoven are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 54.2 points. Willem II carry the highest relegation risk at 65.9%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Eredivisie winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 54 of 216 matches played (25%) · updated 2 hours ago
Current favourite
PSV Eindhoven 55.3% title chance
Projected 54.2 points (range 48–60), 18 games left. Average simulated finish 1.8.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven6 pl · GD +15 | 16 | WWWWW | 55.3%10.5 | 99.2% | 0.0% | 54.248–60 | Average |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar6 pl · GD +11 | 16 | WWWWD | 17.0%25.7 | 94.5% | 0.0% | 49.743–57 | Average |
| 3 | Feyenoord6 pl · GD +13 | 14 | DWDWW | 13.0%10.3 | 92.4% | 0.0% | 48.442–55 | Average |
| 4 | Ajax6 pl · GD +12 | 13 | DWLWW | 11.9%10.7 | 91.8% | 0.0% | 48.442–55 | Average |
| 5 | FC Twente6 pl · GD +7 | 13 | WWDWW | 2.4%2.0 | 64.0% | 0.0% | 43.437–50 | Average |
| 6 | Excelsior6 pl · GD +6 | 10 | LWWDL | 0.4%2.7 | 30.9% | 0.0% | 3932–46 | Average |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles6 pl · GD +2 | 9 | DWLDD | 0.0%0.3 | 11.4% | 0.1% | 35.629–43 | Average |
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard6 pl · GD -2 | 10 | WLWWL | 0.0%0.6 | 6.5% | 0.3% | 3427–41 | Average |
| 9 | Groningen6 pl · GD -1 | 8 | WLLDD | 0.0% | 4.7% | 0.4% | 32.926–40 | Average |
| 10 | NEC6 pl · GD -1 | 7 | WWLDL | 0.0%0.2 | 2.7% | 0.7% | 31.725–39 | Average |
| 11 | Heerenveen6 pl · GD -2 | 6 | DLDLD | 0.0%0.1 | 0.8% | 4.1% | 2821–35 | Average |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam6 pl · GD -3 | 5 | WDLDL | 0.0% | 0.7% | 4.5% | 2821–35 | Average |
| 13 | FC Utrecht6 pl · GD -8 | 5 | LDLDW | 0.0% | 0.3% | 8.1% | 26.120–33 | Average |
| 14 | Telstar6 pl · GD -6 | 5 | LLDLD | 0.0% | 0.1% | 11.7% | 24.819–31 | Average |
| 15 | Cambuur6 pl · GD -9 | 4 | LLLDW | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.7% | 22.516–29 | Average |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle6 pl · GD -11 | 4 | LWLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.7% | 21.415–28 | Average |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag6 pl · GD -10 | 1 | LLDLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.0% | 19.713–26 | Average |
| 18 | Willem II6 pl · GD -13 | 2 | LDLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.9% | 17.411–23 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Ajax v Excelsior
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Ajax | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 11.9% | 0.4% |
| Home win | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 7.6% | 0.2% |
| Away win | 5.4% | 0.8% |
Feyenoord v FC Utrecht
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | Feyenoord | FC |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 6.1% | 0.0% |
FC Twente v PSV Eindhoven
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | FC | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 2.4% | 55.3% |
| Home win | 3.4% | 46.9% |
| Draw | 1.1% | 54.3% |
| Away win | 0.4% | 66.5% |
AZ Alkmaar v Telstar
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | AZ | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 9.3% | 0.0% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Eredivisie rules — 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.