La Liga winner predictor 2026/27
FC Barcelona are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 62.1 points. Elche carry the highest relegation risk at 70.0%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
La Liga winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 54 of 260 matches played (21%) · updated 2 hours ago
Current favourite
FC Barcelona 85.9% title chance
Projected 62.1 points (range 55–69), 21 games left. Average simulated finish 1.2.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona5 pl · GD +17 | 15 | WWWWW | 85.9%2.5 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 62.155–69 | Average |
| 2 | Real Madrid6 pl · GD +11 | 15 | WWLWW | 13.0%5.6 | 97.9% | 0.0% | 54.147–61 | Average |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid5 pl · GD +4 | 10 | WDWLW | 0.4%0.3 | 57.1% | 0.1% | 43.436–51 | Average |
| 4 | Real Betis5 pl · GD +1 | 12 | WWLWW | 0.2% | 52.2% | 0.1% | 43.236–51 | Average |
| 5 | Alavés6 pl · GD +5 | 10 | DWWLL | 0.1%7.9 | 45.6% | 0.1% | 41.835–49 | Average |
| 6 | Deportivo de A Coruña5 pl · GD +3 | 9 | DDWWD | 0.3%0.4 | 45.4% | 0.3% | 41.935–49 | Average |
| 7 | Sevilla FC5 pl · GD +2 | 10 | WWLDW | 0.2% | 37.5% | 0.3% | 4133–49 | Average |
| 8 | RCD Espanyol6 pl · GD +2 | 7 | LLDWL | 0.1%0.1 | 17.7% | 1.3% | 37.230–45 | Average |
| 9 | Athletic Club5 pl · GD +1 | 7 | LLWWD | 0.0%0.1 | 18.2% | 1.2% | 37.430–45 | Average |
| 10 | Racing de Santander5 pl · GD 0 | 7 | DLWLW | 0.0% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 36.529–44 | Average |
| 11 | Levante5 pl · GD -2 | 5 | LDWDL | 0.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 32.725–40 | Average |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano6 pl · GD -5 | 7 | DLWLW | 0.0% | 3.3% | 9.3% | 32.225–40 | Average |
| 13 | CA Osasuna5 pl · GD -3 | 7 | DWWLL | 0.0% | 3.1% | 10.0% | 31.725–39 | Average |
| 14 | Getafe CF5 pl · GD -3 | 5 | LWLDD | 0.0% | 1.5% | 13.5% | 30.523–38 | Average |
| 15 | Real Sociedad6 pl · GD -5 | 7 | LWDWL | 0.0% | 1.2% | 17.3% | 29.823–37 | Average |
| 16 | Villarreal CF5 pl · GD -3 | 2 | DDLLL | 0.0% | 0.9% | 23.5% | 28.321–36 | Average |
| 17 | Celta Vigo6 pl · GD -3 | 4 | LLDDD | 0.0% | 0.4% | 28.7% | 27.421–34 | Average |
| 18 | Málaga5 pl · GD -6 | 3 | LDLDD | 0.0% | 0.1% | 50.5% | 24.618–32 | Average |
| 19 | Valencia CF6 pl · GD -8 | 4 | LLLLW | 0.0% | 0.1% | 64.3% | 22.816–30 | Average |
| 20 | Elche6 pl · GD -8 | 2 | LLLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 70.0% | 21.815–29 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
FC Barcelona v Racing de Santander
Wed 16 Sept
| Title chance | FC | Racing |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 85.9% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 86.8% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 80.3% | 0.1% |
| Away win | 75.8% | 0.1% |
Sevilla FC v FC Barcelona
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Sevilla | FC |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.2% | 85.9% |
| Home win | 0.5% | 78.9% |
| Draw | 0.2% | 83.2% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 89.1% |
Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | Atlético | Real |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.4% | 13.0% |
| Home win | 0.7% | 8.1% |
| Draw | 0.3% | 10.6% |
| Away win | 0.1% | 16.8% |
FC Barcelona v Getafe CF
Sat 10 Oct
| Title chance | FC | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 85.9% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 86.9% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 80.2% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 76.2% | 0.0% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying La Liga rules — 3 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.