EFL League One winner predictor 2026/27
Sheffield Wednesday are our current favourites for the champions, projected to finish on 60.5 points. Bromley carry the highest relegation risk at 87.1%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
EFL League One winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 71 of 396 matches played (18%) · updated 7 hours ago
Current favourite
Sheffield Wednesday 46.2% promotion chance
Projected 60.5 points (range 52–69), 27 games left. Average simulated finish 3.6.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheffield Wednesday6 pl · GD +7 | 13 | LWWWD | 46.2%6.1 | 39.1% | 0.0% | 60.552–69 | Average |
| 2 | Oxford United5 pl · GD +6 | 10 | DWLWW | 43.2%30.3 | 39.8% | 0.1% | 59.951–68 | Average |
| 3 | Huddersfield Town6 pl · GD +6 | 12 | DWWDD | 40.0%1.0 | 42.0% | 0.0% | 59.551–68 | Average |
| 4 | Stockport County6 pl · GD +6 | 9 | LWLWL | 17.5%18.6 | 42.1% | 0.1% | 54.947–63 | Average |
| 5 | Reading5 pl · GD +5 | 7 | LDWWL | 12.2%12.4 | 37.3% | 0.4% | 53.345–62 | Average |
| 6 | Stevenage6 pl · GD +4 | 9 | LDDWW | 9.9%5.3 | 33.2% | 0.5% | 52.444–61 | Average |
| 7 | Bradford City6 pl · GD +2 | 12 | WLLWW | 8.4%5.4 | 32.9% | 0.4% | 52.544–61 | Average |
| 8 | Cambridge United6 pl · GD +2 | 11 | DLWDW | 7.4%5.1 | 28.7% | 0.4% | 51.543–60 | Average |
| 9 | Plymouth Argyle6 pl · GD +2 | 10 | DWLWW | 4.3%3.8 | 22.8% | 0.9% | 49.741–58 | Average |
| 10 | Leyton Orient6 pl · GD +3 | 7 | WLWDL | 3.7%4.3 | 20.0% | 1.3% | 48.740–57 | Average |
| 11 | Blackpool6 pl · GD +2 | 8 | WWLLD | 3.1%0.3 | 19.5% | 1.8% | 48.540–57 | Average |
| 12 | Burton Albion6 pl · GD 0 | 8 | WLWDL | 1.5%6.1 | 12.2% | 3.5% | 46.438–55 | Average |
| 13 | Luton Town6 pl · GD -1 | 8 | DLWDL | 0.8%0.4 | 7.3% | 5.6% | 44.636–53 | Average |
| 14 | Notts County6 pl · GD 0 | 7 | DWDDL | 0.8%1.1 | 7.5% | 6.4% | 44.336–53 | Average |
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon6 pl · GD -2 | 10 | DWLWW | 0.5%0.4 | 6.4% | 6.9% | 44.336–52 | Average |
| 16 | Leicester City6 pl · GD -2 | 8 | LDWLW | 0.4%0.4 | 3.8% | 9.8% | 42.434–51 | Average |
| 17 | Milton Keynes Dons6 pl · GD -2 | 5 | DDLDD | 0.1%0.1 | 2.1% | 21.2% | 39.631–48 | Average |
| 18 | Mansfield Town6 pl · GD -3 | 7 | LWLLD | 0.1%0.1 | 1.7% | 19.9% | 39.532–48 | Average |
| 19 | Wycombe Wanderers6 pl · GD -4 | 6 | DLLDW | 0.0% | 1.1% | 28.0% | 38.130–47 | Average |
| 20 | Barnsley6 pl · GD -5 | 7 | DWWLL | 0.0%0.2 | 0.5% | 39.4% | 36.228–44 | Average |
| 21 | Doncaster Rovers6 pl · GD -3 | 3 | DDDLL | 0.0% | 0.3% | 47.8% | 34.526–43 | Average |
| 22 | Peterborough United6 pl · GD -6 | 5 | WLDLD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.7% | 33.626–42 | Average |
| 23 | Wigan Athletic6 pl · GD -6 | 4 | LLWLD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.1% | 32.324–40 | Average |
| 24 | Bromley6 pl · GD -11 | 5 | DLLLD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 87.1% | 27.920–36 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Leyton Orient v Stevenage
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Leyton | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 3.7% | 9.9% |
| Home win | 4.6% | 6.6% |
| Draw | 2.3% | 9.0% |
| Away win | 1.6% | 14.5% |
Bromley v Huddersfield Town
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Bromley | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 29.5% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 34.1% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 43.9% |
Blackpool v Plymouth Argyle
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Blackpool | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 3.1% | 4.3% |
| Home win | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Draw | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| Away win | 1.7% | 6.3% |
Luton Town v Bradford City
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Luton | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.8% | 8.4% |
| Home win | 1.4% | 6.5% |
| Draw | 0.6% | 8.4% |
| Away win | 0.3% | 13.2% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying EFL League One rules — 2 automatic promotion places, 4 play-off places, 4 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.