EFL League Two winner predictor 2026/27
York City are our current favourites for the champions, projected to finish on 57.2 points. Rochdale carry the highest relegation risk at 43.9%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
EFL League Two winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 72 of 396 matches played (18%) · updated 39 min ago
Current favourite
York City 51.7% promotion chance
Projected 57.2 points (range 49–66), 27 games left. Average simulated finish 4.4.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York City6 pl · GD +5 | 11 | DWLDW | 51.7%35.9 | 31.2% | 0.1% | 57.249–66 | Average |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers6 pl · GD +4 | 12 | WWWWL | 44.4%28.0 | 33.9% | 0.0% | 56.148–65 | Average |
| 3 | Barnet6 pl · GD +5 | 12 | WDDDW | 45.1%13.3 | 31.8% | 0.0% | 56.148–65 | Average |
| 4 | Walsall6 pl · GD +4 | 10 | DWDDD | 31.6%7.7 | 35.0% | 0.0% | 53.845–62 | Average |
| 5 | Cheltenham Town6 pl · GD +3 | 11 | LDWDW | 26.9%17.1 | 34.7% | 0.1% | 5344–61 | Average |
| 6 | Grimsby Town6 pl · GD +3 | 10 | DDDDW | 23.4%13.7 | 35.0% | 0.1% | 52.444–61 | Average |
| 7 | Fleetwood Town6 pl · GD +3 | 10 | DDDWD | 19.2%3.3 | 33.2% | 0.0% | 51.543–60 | Average |
| 8 | Gillingham6 pl · GD +2 | 9 | DDDWW | 16.9%11.3 | 30.8% | 0.2% | 50.742–59 | Average |
| 9 | Crewe Alexandra6 pl · GD +2 | 10 | WDDDD | 12.5%4.4 | 29.6% | 0.2% | 49.841–58 | Average |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers6 pl · GD +2 | 9 | DDDWL | 11.7%19.4 | 27.5% | 0.6% | 49.241–58 | Average |
| 11 | Chesterfield6 pl · GD 0 | 8 | WLDDW | 4.4%2.7 | 16.6% | 1.3% | 45.837–54 | Average |
| 12 | Oldham Athletic6 pl · GD +1 | 7 | LWDLL | 4.4%9.6 | 15.2% | 1.2% | 45.437–54 | Average |
| 13 | Swindon Town6 pl · GD -2 | 10 | WLWWL | 2.0%15.4 | 8.9% | 2.8% | 43.435–52 | Average |
| 14 | Rotherham United6 pl · GD -1 | 6 | DWDLD | 1.8% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 42.935–52 | Average |
| 15 | Colchester United6 pl · GD -2 | 8 | WWLLD | 1.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 41.533–50 | Average |
| 16 | Salford City6 pl · GD -2 | 7 | LLWWD | 0.9%0.2 | 4.7% | 6.1% | 40.933–49 | Average |
| 17 | Newport County6 pl · GD -1 | 5 | LDLLD | 0.7%0.7 | 4.9% | 7.2% | 40.432–49 | Average |
| 18 | Exeter City6 pl · GD -1 | 5 | WLDDL | 0.4%1.6 | 4.1% | 8.0% | 39.632–48 | Average |
| 19 | Northampton Town6 pl · GD -2 | 6 | LDDWL | 0.6%3.2 | 3.8% | 8.8% | 39.631–48 | Average |
| 20 | Accrington Stanley6 pl · GD -3 | 5 | LLDWL | 0.5%0.8 | 2.9% | 12.7% | 38.630–47 | Average |
| 21 | Port Vale6 pl · GD -4 | 5 | DDLLW | 0.1%0.1 | 0.8% | 24.8% | 35.327–43 | Average |
| 22 | Crawley Town6 pl · GD -5 | 4 | WLDLL | 0.0%0.3 | 0.5% | 36.4% | 33.525–42 | Average |
| 23 | Shrewsbury Town6 pl · GD -6 | 6 | LWLLW | 0.0% | 0.3% | 36.9% | 33.425–41 | Average |
| 24 | Rochdale6 pl · GD -5 | 4 | LLWLD | 0.0% | 0.2% | 43.9% | 32.224–40 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Rochdale v Oldham Athletic
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Rochdale | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 6.5% |
Walsall v Port Vale
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Walsall | Port |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 31.6% | 0.1% |
| Home win | 35.7% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 0.1% |
| Away win | 21.3% | 0.2% |
Gillingham v Bristol Rovers
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Gillingham | Bristol |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 16.9% | 44.4% |
| Home win | 22.1% | 38.2% |
| Draw | 14.1% | 44.8% |
| Away win | 10.4% | 56.0% |
Exeter City v Tranmere Rovers
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Exeter | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.4% | 11.7% |
| Home win | 0.8% | 7.9% |
| Draw | 0.3% | 10.5% |
| Away win | 0.3% | 16.5% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying EFL League Two rules — 3 automatic promotion places, 4 play-off places, 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.