Ligue 1 winner predictor 2026/27
Lille OSC are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 41.1 points. Auxerre carry the highest relegation risk at 45.6%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Ligue 1 winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 36 of 198 matches played (18%) · updated 40 min ago
Current favourite
Lille OSC 30.2% title chance
Projected 41.1 points (range 34–48), 18 games left. Average simulated finish 3.1.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille OSC4 pl · GD +5 | 10 | WDWW | 30.2%16.2 | 85.8% | 0.0% | 41.134–48 | Average |
| 2 | AS Monaco4 pl · GD +4 | 10 | WWWD | 24.8%6.3 | 82.1% | 0.0% | 40.333–47 | Average |
| 3 | Stade Rennais4 pl · GD +3 | 10 | DWWW | 14.6%6.5 | 71.9% | 0.1% | 38.431–45 | Average |
| 4 | Paris FC4 pl · GD +4 | 8 | DWWD | 13.4%8.6 | 72.0% | 0.1% | 38.131–45 | Average |
| 5 | Olympique Lyonnais4 pl · GD +4 | 8 | WDWD | 9.8%2.4 | 62.6% | 0.0% | 36.930–43 | Average |
| 6 | RC Strasbourg4 pl · GD +1 | 7 | LWWD | 3.7%2.0 | 38.0% | 0.6% | 33.827–41 | Average |
| 7 | Paris Saint-Germain4 pl · GD 0 | 5 | DDLW | 0.9%0.6 | 18.2% | 2.8% | 30.424–37 | Average |
| 8 | RC Lens4 pl · GD +1 | 4 | WLLD | 0.7%0.2 | 15.5% | 3.0% | 29.823–37 | Average |
| 9 | Lorient4 pl · GD 0 | 5 | DLWD | 0.5%0.7 | 13.3% | 3.6% | 29.423–36 | Average |
| 10 | Brest4 pl · GD 0 | 5 | DDWL | 0.7%1.9 | 12.1% | 4.1% | 2922–36 | Average |
| 11 | Olympique de Marseille4 pl · GD 0 | 3 | WLLL | 0.4%0.9 | 10.6% | 4.7% | 28.422–35 | Average |
| 12 | Angers4 pl · GD -1 | 4 | LWLD | 0.2%0.1 | 7.1% | 8.0% | 27.321–34 | Average |
| 13 | Le Mans4 pl · GD -1 | 3 | DLDD | 0.2% | 5.2% | 11.6% | 26.319–33 | Average |
| 14 | Le Havre4 pl · GD -2 | 2 | LDLD | 0.1% | 2.0% | 23.0% | 23.717–31 | Average |
| 15 | Troyes4 pl · GD -5 | 4 | DWLL | 0.0%0.1 | 1.3% | 28.6% | 23.417–30 | Average |
| 16 | Toulouse FC4 pl · GD -3 | 2 | LDLD | 0.0%0.1 | 1.4% | 27.7% | 23.116–30 | Average |
| 17 | OGC Nice4 pl · GD -4 | 2 | DLDL | 0.0% | 0.7% | 36.6% | 21.815–28 | Average |
| 18 | Auxerre4 pl · GD -6 | 3 | LLLW | 0.0% | 0.2% | 45.6% | 2115–28 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
AS Monaco v RC Lens
Fri 18 Sept
| Title chance | AS | RC |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 24.8% | 0.7% |
| Home win | 29.4% | 0.3% |
| Draw | 19.8% | 0.7% |
| Away win | 15.0% | 2.0% |
Paris FC v RC Strasbourg
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Paris | RC |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 13.4% | 3.7% |
| Home win | 18.8% | 1.8% |
| Draw | 11.1% | 3.0% |
| Away win | 7.5% | 6.1% |
Olympique Lyonnais v Stade Rennais
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Olympique | Stade |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Home win | 14.3% | 10.2% |
| Draw | 8.2% | 14.7% |
| Away win | 5.2% | 23.1% |
OGC Nice v Lille OSC
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | OGC | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 30.2% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 21.3% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 26.6% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 37.8% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Ligue 1 rules — 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.