Major League Soccer winner predictor 2026
Nashville SC are our current favourites for the supporters' shield, projected to finish on 88.2 points. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Major League Soccer winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 0 of 255 matches played (0%) · updated 43 min ago
Current favourite
Nashville SC 84.9% supporters' shield chance
Projected 88.2 points (range 82–95), 17 games left. Average simulated finish 1.2.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Supporters' Shield | Play-offs | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC25 pl · GD +29 | 54 | – | 84.9%8.6 | >99.9% | 88.282–95 | Average |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC24 pl · GD +30 | 46 | – | 13.1%7.7 | >99.9% | 79.973–86 | Average |
| 3 | Inter Miami CF25 pl · GD +15 | 45 | – | 1.5%0.5 | >99.9% | 73.467–80 | Average |
| 4 | FC Dallas25 pl · GD +7 | 43 | – | 0.2%0.2 | >99.9% | 7063–77 | Average |
| 5 | New England Revolution25 pl · GD +10 | 43 | – | 0.2%0.2 | 99.9% | 69.262–76 | Average |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC26 pl · GD +14 | 40 | – | 0.1% | 99.8% | 68.261–75 | Average |
| 7 | St. Louis City SC25 pl · GD +7 | 41 | – | 0.1%0.1 | 99.8% | 67.761–75 | Average |
| 8 | Charlotte FC25 pl · GD +9 | 40 | – | 0.0% | 99.4% | 66.860–74 | Average |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo FC25 pl · GD +4 | 43 | – | 0.1%0.1 | 99.7% | 67.261–74 | Average |
| 10 | San Jose Earthquakes25 pl · GD +8 | 41 | – | 0.0% | 99.1% | 66.459–73 | Average |
| 11 | Chicago Fire FC24 pl · GD +10 | 39 | – | 0.0%0.1 | 98.6% | 64.758–72 | Average |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union25 pl · GD +7 | 33 | – | 0.0% | 91.4% | 60.253–67 | Average |
| 13 | Colorado Rapids25 pl · GD +1 | 35 | – | 0.0% | 89.0% | 59.453–66 | Average |
| 14 | New York City FC25 pl · GD +6 | 32 | – | 0.0% | 74.7% | 56.550–64 | Average |
| 15 | Portland Timbers25 pl · GD 0 | 32 | – | 0.0% | 70.2% | 55.749–62 | Average |
| 16 | Orlando City SC25 pl · GD -12 | 34 | – | 0.0% | 65.2% | 55.749–63 | Average |
| 17 | FC Cincinnati24 pl · GD -7 | 32 | – | 0.0% | 52.2% | 53.847–61 | Average |
| 18 | San Diego FC25 pl · GD 0 | 30 | – | 0.0% | 46.2% | 52.546–59 | Average |
| 19 | Real Salt Lake24 pl · GD -2 | 29 | – | 0.0% | 40.1% | 51.745–59 | Average |
| 20 | Minnesota United FC25 pl · GD -6 | 29 | – | 0.0% | 36.6% | 51.445–58 | Average |
| 21 | Seattle Sounders FC23 pl · GD -5 | 28 | – | 0.0% | 28.8% | 50.344–57 | Average |
| 22 | LA Galaxy26 pl · GD -9 | 30 | – | 0.0% | 23.6% | 49.843–56 | Average |
| 23 | D.C. United24 pl · GD -7 | 29 | – | 0.0% | 24.1% | 49.743–56 | Average |
| 24 | Toronto FC25 pl · GD -8 | 29 | – | 0.0% | 23.8% | 49.743–56 | Average |
| 25 | Austin FC25 pl · GD -12 | 29 | – | 0.0% | 16.7% | 48.342–55 | Average |
| 26 | New York Red Bulls25 pl · GD -15 | 30 | – | 0.0% | 12.4% | 47.942–54 | Average |
| 27 | Columbus Crew25 pl · GD -7 | 23 | – | 0.0% | 5.5% | 44.638–51 | Average |
| 28 | Atlanta United FC25 pl · GD -14 | 23 | – | 0.0% | 3.4% | 43.537–50 | Average |
| 29 | CF Montréal25 pl · GD -20 | 21 | – | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3832–44 | Average |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City24 pl · GD -33 | 18 | – | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.725–37 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF
Sun 16 Aug
| Supporters' Shield chance | Nashville | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 84.9% | 1.5% |
| Home win | 88.8% | 0.9% |
| Draw | 82.0% | 1.8% |
| Away win | 75.8% | 4.9% |
Seattle Sounders FC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Mon 17 Aug
| Supporters' Shield chance | Seattle | Vancouver |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 13.1% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 7.0% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 8.9% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 14.8% |
New York Red Bulls v Nashville SC
Wed 19 Aug
| Supporters' Shield chance | New | Nashville |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 84.9% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 78.6% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 82.9% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 89.7% |
Vancouver Whitecaps FC v Houston Dynamo FC
Thu 20 Aug
| Supporters' Shield chance | Vancouver | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 13.1% | 0.1% |
| Home win | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 9.5% | 0.1% |
| Away win | 7.0% | 0.1% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Major League Soccer rules — 18 play-off places, 0 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.