National League winner predictor 2026/27
Boreham Wood are our current favourites for the champions, projected to finish on 69.1 points. Solihull Moors carry the highest relegation risk at 95.5%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
National League winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 93 of 432 matches played (22%) · updated 5 hours ago
Current favourite
Boreham Wood 39.9% promotion chance
Projected 69.1 points (range 60–78), 29 games left. Average simulated finish 2.6.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood7 pl · GD +8 | 17 | WWWWD | 39.9%15.4 | 56.2% | 0.0% | 69.160–78 | Average |
| 2 | AFC Fylde8 pl · GD +8 | 17 | WWDWW | 23.5%20.0 | 68.6% | 0.0% | 66.458–75 | Average |
| 3 | Southend United8 pl · GD +6 | 17 | LDWDW | 12.8%3.9 | 73.6% | 0.0% | 6456–72 | Average |
| 4 | Harrogate Town8 pl · GD +7 | 16 | LWWWL | 9.1%5.4 | 70.8% | 0.0% | 62.454–71 | Average |
| 5 | Kidderminster Harriers7 pl · GD +5 | 14 | DWDWW | 7.5%4.4 | 68.6% | 0.0% | 61.753–70 | Average |
| 6 | Aldershot Town8 pl · GD +4 | 15 | WDWWD | 4.1%0.5 | 62.5% | 0.1% | 59.851–68 | Average |
| 7 | FC Halifax Town8 pl · GD +3 | 12 | LWLWW | 1.3%1.1 | 38.1% | 0.7% | 5546–64 | Average |
| 8 | Yeovil Town8 pl · GD +1 | 12 | WWLLD | 0.3%5.1 | 27.4% | 1.5% | 53.245–62 | Average |
| 9 | Forest Green Rovers8 pl · GD +1 | 13 | LLWWD | 0.5%0.4 | 26.6% | 1.6% | 53.145–62 | Average |
| 10 | Carlisle United8 pl · GD +3 | 10 | DWLDD | 0.4%1.0 | 27.1% | 1.8% | 52.744–61 | Average |
| 11 | Sutton United8 pl · GD 0 | 15 | WLLLW | 0.3%0.6 | 18.6% | 2.5% | 51.443–60 | Average |
| 12 | Eastleigh8 pl · GD 0 | 11 | WDLDL | 0.1%0.5 | 14.7% | 4.4% | 49.941–59 | Average |
| 13 | Worthing8 pl · GD 0 | 11 | LLDDW | 0.1% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 49.541–58 | Average |
| 14 | Hornchurch8 pl · GD -2 | 12 | WWLLL | 0.1%1.7 | 10.9% | 5.4% | 48.840–57 | Average |
| 15 | Hartlepool United7 pl · GD -1 | 9 | LLLWL | 0.1%0.3 | 9.5% | 5.9% | 48.240–57 | Average |
| 16 | Scunthorpe United7 pl · GD -2 | 7 | LWLLW | 0.0% | 3.3% | 15.2% | 44.736–53 | Average |
| 17 | Wealdstone8 pl · GD -3 | 8 | DWLWL | 0.0% | 3.0% | 17.1% | 44.536–53 | Average |
| 18 | Woking8 pl · GD -2 | 8 | LDLWD | 0.0% | 2.5% | 22.2% | 43.235–52 | Average |
| 19 | Boston United8 pl · GD -2 | 8 | LLDLD | 0.0%0.2 | 1.7% | 25.0% | 42.534–51 | Average |
| 20 | Barrow8 pl · GD -2 | 6 | LDWDL | 0.0%0.1 | 1.7% | 25.8% | 42.234–51 | Average |
| 21 | Altrincham7 pl · GD -5 | 9 | LWWWL | 0.0%0.1 | 1.7% | 25.8% | 42.634–51 | Average |
| 22 | Tamworth8 pl · GD -8 | 5 | WLDLL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 64.6% | 3628–44 | Average |
| 23 | Gateshead7 pl · GD -8 | 4 | LLLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 80.9% | 32.825–41 | Average |
| 24 | Solihull Moors8 pl · GD -11 | 4 | LLDLW | 0.0% | 0.0% | 95.5% | 27.820–36 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Scunthorpe United v Boreham Wood
Wed 16 Sept
| Promotion chance | Scunthorpe | Boreham |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 39.9% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 30.3% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 34.8% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 44.5% |
Kidderminster Harriers v Gateshead
Wed 16 Sept
| Promotion chance | Kidderminster | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 4.2% | 0.0% |
Gateshead v Southend United
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Gateshead | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 12.8% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 11.9% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 17.3% |
Woking v Kidderminster Harriers
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Woking | Kidderminster |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 7.0% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 10.4% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying National League rules — 1 automatic promotion places, 6 play-off places, 4 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.