NIFL Premiership winner predictor 2026/27
Coleraine are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 66.3 points. Bangor carry the highest relegation risk at 94.4%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
NIFL Premiership winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 40 of 180 matches played (22%) · updated 6 hours ago
Current favourite
Coleraine 80.7% title chance
Projected 66.3 points (range 59–73), 23 games left. Average simulated finish 1.2.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine7 pl · GD +12 | 19 | WWWWW | 80.7%1.8 | 99.3% | 0.0% | 66.359–73 | Average |
| 2 | Larne5 pl · GD +6 | 13 | DWWWW | 16.2%12.8 | 88.9% | 0.0% | 58.650–66 | Average |
| 3 | Linfield7 pl · GD +3 | 16 | WWWWD | 2.0%0.1 | 45.7% | 0.0% | 50.443–58 | Average |
| 4 | Cliftonville7 pl · GD +3 | 12 | LLWWL | 0.5%0.7 | 25.3% | 0.1% | 4739–55 | Average |
| 5 | Dungannon Swifts7 pl · GD +1 | 12 | WWWLL | 0.2%11.8 | 16.6% | 0.1% | 45.538–53 | Average |
| 6 | Crusaders7 pl · GD +1 | 12 | WWLLW | 0.3%0.1 | 12.0% | 0.1% | 44.237–52 | Average |
| 7 | Carrick Rangers7 pl · GD +1 | 10 | LWLLD | 0.1%1.9 | 8.2% | 0.2% | 42.435–50 | Average |
| 8 | Glentoran7 pl · GD 0 | 7 | WLLDL | 0.0%0.1 | 2.4% | 1.6% | 38.431–46 | Average |
| 9 | Ballymena United6 pl · GD -1 | 5 | LLDLD | 0.0%0.1 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 36.729–45 | Average |
| 10 | Limavady United6 pl · GD -4 | 6 | LLLWW | 0.0% | 0.2% | 11.5% | 32.425–40 | Average |
| 11 | Portadown7 pl · GD -10 | 1 | LLLLD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 89.1% | 21.214–28 | Average |
| 12 | Bangor7 pl · GD -12 | 2 | LDLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 94.4% | 19.413–26 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Larne v Limavady United
Sat 22 Aug
| Title chance | Larne | Limavady |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 16.2% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 10.0% | 0.0% |
Ballymena United v Larne
Sat 29 Aug
| Title chance | Ballymena | Larne |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 16.2% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 10.9% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 13.4% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 19.3% |
Carrick Rangers v Larne
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Carrick | Larne |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.1% | 16.2% |
| Home win | 0.2% | 11.1% |
| Draw | 0.1% | 13.9% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 20.2% |
Coleraine v Limavady United
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Coleraine | Limavady |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 80.7% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 82.7% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 70.8% | 0.0% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying NIFL Premiership rules — 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.