Premier League winner predictor 2026/27
Arsenal are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 53.1 points. Coventry City carry the highest relegation risk at 87.5%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Premier League winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 43 of 279 matches played (15%) · updated 6 hours ago
Current favourite
Arsenal 33.7% title chance
Projected 53.1 points (range 45–61), 23 games left. Average simulated finish 2.8.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal4 pl · GD +7 | 12 | WWWW | 33.7%8.5 | 89.2% | 0.0% | 53.145–61 | Average |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion4 pl · GD +8 | 7 | WLDW | 21.5%15.6 | 80.3% | 0.0% | 50.743–59 | Average |
| 3 | Manchester City4 pl · GD +6 | 12 | WWWW | 21.2%4.5 | 79.8% | 0.0% | 50.943–59 | Average |
| 4 | Leeds United4 pl · GD +4 | 8 | WDDW | 12.4%8.0 | 69.5% | 0.0% | 48.741–56 | Average |
| 5 | Chelsea4 pl · GD +1 | 7 | WWLD | 3.1%4.1 | 37.7% | 0.2% | 4436–52 | Average |
| 6 | Hull City4 pl · GD +3 | 8 | WWDD | 3.1%7.4 | 36.4% | 0.2% | 43.836–52 | Average |
| 7 | Brentford4 pl · GD +3 | 6 | WDDD | 2.2%5.4 | 32.9% | 0.3% | 42.835–51 | Average |
| 8 | Everton4 pl · GD +2 | 6 | WDDD | 1.0%2.2 | 22.2% | 0.7% | 4133–49 | Average |
| 9 | Liverpool4 pl · GD +2 | 6 | DDWD | 1.0%3.3 | 21.0% | 1.0% | 4133–49 | Average |
| 10 | Manchester United4 pl · GD 0 | 4 | LWDL | 0.3%2.2 | 7.5% | 4.5% | 36.729–45 | Average |
| 11 | AFC Bournemouth4 pl · GD -1 | 3 | LDDD | 0.2%0.3 | 7.0% | 5.1% | 36.428–45 | Average |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest4 pl · GD 0 | 5 | LDDW | 0.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 35.828–44 | Average |
| 13 | Ipswich Town4 pl · GD -3 | 6 | WLLW | 0.2%0.1 | 4.2% | 6.8% | 35.628–43 | Average |
| 14 | Newcastle United4 pl · GD -1 | 5 | DWDL | 0.1%2.0 | 3.1% | 9.5% | 34.327–42 | Average |
| 15 | Sunderland4 pl · GD -2 | 4 | LWDL | 0.0%0.7 | 2.2% | 11.6% | 33.426–41 | Average |
| 16 | Fulham4 pl · GD -3 | 1 | LLLD | 0.0% | 0.9% | 29.2% | 29.722–38 | Average |
| 17 | Crystal Palace4 pl · GD -5 | 3 | LLWL | 0.0%0.1 | 0.5% | 34.6% | 2922–37 | Average |
| 18 | Aston Villa4 pl · GD -6 | 1 | LLDL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 47.9% | 26.919–35 | Average |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur4 pl · GD -5 | 2 | LLDD | 0.0% | 0.1% | 55.4% | 25.819–33 | Average |
| 20 | Coventry City4 pl · GD -10 | 0 | LLLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 87.5% | 20.213–27 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Brentford v Chelsea
Fri 18 Sept
| Title chance | Brentford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 2.2% | 3.1% |
| Home win | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| Draw | 1.2% | 3.3% |
| Away win | 0.7% | 5.6% |
Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 21.5% | 33.7% |
| Home win | 28.8% | 23.8% |
| Draw | 18.7% | 31.9% |
| Away win | 12.7% | 44.3% |
Newcastle United v Hull City
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Newcastle | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.1% | 3.1% |
| Home win | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| Draw | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 4.8% |
Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | Leeds | Crystal |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 6.2% | 0.0% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Premier League rules — 3 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.