Primeira Liga winner predictor 2026/27
Benfica are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 55.3 points. Casa Pia carry the highest relegation risk at 91.5%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Primeira Liga winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 53 of 216 matches played (25%) · updated 6 hours ago
Current favourite
Benfica 52.4% title chance
Projected 55.3 points (range 49–61), 18 games left. Average simulated finish 1.7.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica6 pl · GD +17 | 16 | WWWWW | 52.4%10.6 | 99.5% | 0.0% | 55.349–61 | Average |
| 2 | FC Porto6 pl · GD +13 | 18 | WWWWW | 39.0%14.5 | 98.5% | 0.0% | 54.348–61 | Average |
| 3 | Sporting CP6 pl · GD +9 | 14 | WWWWD | 5.1%4.4 | 83.3% | 0.0% | 47.641–54 | Average |
| 4 | Santa Clara6 pl · GD +7 | 14 | WWDWW | 3.4%1.5 | 74.0% | 0.0% | 46.139–53 | Average |
| 5 | SC Braga5 pl · GD +2 | 10 | DWWLW | 0.2%0.2 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 38.932–46 | Average |
| 6 | Arouca6 pl · GD +3 | 10 | WLWDL | 0.0%0.6 | 11.9% | 0.1% | 37.330–44 | Average |
| 7 | Estrela6 pl · GD +2 | 10 | DWDWD | 0.0%0.2 | 10.7% | 0.0% | 37.431–44 | Average |
| 8 | Gil Vicente5 pl · GD 0 | 7 | WWDLL | 0.0%0.1 | 2.4% | 0.9% | 32.526–39 | Average |
| 9 | Académico de Viseu6 pl · GD -2 | 8 | LDLWW | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3125–38 | Average |
| 10 | Alverca6 pl · GD -3 | 5 | DLDLW | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 2822–35 | Average |
| 11 | Marítimo6 pl · GD -4 | 7 | WDLLL | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.6% | 28.222–35 | Average |
| 12 | Famalicão6 pl · GD -2 | 4 | LLDDD | 0.0% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 2720–34 | Average |
| 13 | Moreirense6 pl · GD -6 | 7 | LWLLW | 0.0% | 0.1% | 6.5% | 26.920–34 | Average |
| 14 | Vitória de Guimarães6 pl · GD -3 | 4 | LWLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 25.919–32 | Average |
| 15 | Nacional6 pl · GD -4 | 4 | WLLLL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 13.0% | 24.818–31 | Average |
| 16 | Rio Ave6 pl · GD -9 | 4 | LWLLD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.5% | 21.716–28 | Average |
| 17 | Estoril6 pl · GD -6 | 2 | LLLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.8% | 21.115–27 | Average |
| 18 | Casa Pia6 pl · GD -14 | 1 | LLLDL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 91.5% | 13.58–19 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Sporting CP v Arouca
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Sporting | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 6.8% | 0.1% |
| Draw | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Away win | 2.0% | 0.2% |
Santa Clara v SC Braga
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | Santa | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Home win | 4.1% | 0.1% |
| Draw | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Away win | 1.1% | 0.4% |
FC Porto v Benfica
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | FC | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 39.0% | 52.4% |
| Home win | 52.4% | 39.5% |
| Draw | 34.7% | 56.4% |
| Away win | 21.3% | 72.1% |
SC Braga v Sporting CP
Fri 9 Oct
| Title chance | SC | Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.2% | 5.1% |
| Home win | 0.4% | 2.7% |
| Draw | 0.2% | 4.1% |
| Away win | 0.1% | 7.4% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Primeira Liga rules — 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.