Scottish Championship winner predictor 2026/27
Stenhousemuir are our current favourites for the champions, projected to finish on 56.2 points. Greenock Morton carry the highest relegation risk at 89.3%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Scottish Championship winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 30 of 135 matches played (22%) · updated 5 hours ago
Current favourite
Stenhousemuir 65.9% promotion chance
Projected 56.2 points (range 49–63), 21 games left. Average simulated finish 1.4.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir6 pl · GD +8 | 16 | WWWWW | 65.9%6.0 | 34.1% | 0.0% | 56.249–63 | Average |
| 2 | Raith Rovers6 pl · GD +8 | 13 | WWLWW | 29.7%17.1 | 70.1% | 0.0% | 52.145–59 | Average |
| 3 | Partick Thistle6 pl · GD +3 | 11 | WDDWL | 2.5%11.7 | 89.7% | 0.1% | 43.636–51 | Average |
| 4 | Livingston6 pl · GD +3 | 9 | LWLLW | 1.4%1.1 | 85.5% | 0.3% | 41.535–49 | Average |
| 5 | Dunfermline Athletic6 pl · GD +1 | 9 | DLWDW | 0.5%0.3 | 69.5% | 1.0% | 38.231–45 | Average |
| 6 | Inverness Caledonian Thistle6 pl · GD -2 | 6 | DDLLW | 0.0% | 23.2% | 10.3% | 32.225–39 | Average |
| 7 | Arbroath6 pl · GD -4 | 8 | DWWDL | 0.0%0.5 | 15.3% | 16.4% | 30.824–38 | Average |
| 8 | Ayr United6 pl · GD -3 | 5 | DLDLL | 0.0%0.2 | 9.7% | 26.6% | 28.722–36 | Average |
| 9 | Queen's Park6 pl · GD -6 | 4 | LLDWL | 0.0% | 2.7% | 56.2% | 25.119–32 | Average |
| 10 | Greenock Morton6 pl · GD -8 | 1 | LLDLL | 0.0% | 0.2% | 89.3% | 19.213–26 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Stenhousemuir v Arbroath
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 65.9% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 69.8% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 59.8% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 54.3% | 0.0% |
Partick Thistle v Raith Rovers
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Partick | Raith |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 2.5% | 29.7% |
| Home win | 5.4% | 22.4% |
| Draw | 2.5% | 27.5% |
| Away win | 1.4% | 37.3% |
Raith Rovers v Livingston
Fri 25 Sept
| Promotion chance | Raith | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 29.7% | 1.4% |
| Home win | 33.5% | 0.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 1.6% |
| Away win | 20.5% | 3.4% |
Ayr United v Stenhousemuir
Fri 25 Sept
| Promotion chance | Ayr | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 65.9% |
| Home win | 0.1% | 57.8% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 63.1% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 71.8% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Scottish Championship rules — 1 automatic promotion places, 4 play-off places, 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.