Scottish League One winner predictor 2026/27
Ross County are our current favourites for the champions, projected to finish on 61.4 points. Queen of the South carry the highest relegation risk at 93.2%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Scottish League One winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 34 of 135 matches played (25%) · updated 4 hours ago
Current favourite
Ross County 60.2% promotion chance
Projected 61.4 points (range 55–68), 21 games left. Average simulated finish 1.4.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County6 pl · GD +16 | 16 | WWWDW | 60.2%38.8 | 39.8% | 0.0% | 61.455–68 | Average |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical6 pl · GD +12 | 16 | WWDWW | 39.8%38.2 | 60.3% | 0.0% | 59.953–66 | Average |
| 3 | Alloa Athletic7 pl · GD +3 | 9 | WWDDL | 0.0%0.5 | 77.0% | 0.7% | 3932–46 | Average |
| 4 | Montrose7 pl · GD -1 | 12 | LWWWW | 0.0% | 71.4% | 0.9% | 38.632–46 | Average |
| 5 | East Kilbride7 pl · GD +1 | 10 | WLLLW | 0.0% | 68.5% | 1.3% | 37.731–45 | Average |
| 6 | East Fife7 pl · GD +1 | 8 | LDDDD | 0.0%0.1 | 64.1% | 1.3% | 3730–44 | Average |
| 7 | Cove Rangers7 pl · GD -4 | 5 | LWLDL | 0.0% | 8.2% | 27.9% | 27.721–34 | Average |
| 8 | Airdrieonians7 pl · GD -6 | 6 | LLDLW | 0.0% | 5.9% | 35.5% | 27.120–34 | Average |
| 9 | Peterhead7 pl · GD -7 | 7 | WLDLL | 0.0% | 4.9% | 39.4% | 26.720–33 | Average |
| 10 | Queen of the South7 pl · GD -15 | 4 | LLWDL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 93.2% | 17.912–24 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Ross County v Hamilton Academical
Sat 12 Sept
| Promotion chance | Ross | Hamilton |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Home win | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| Draw | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Away win | 40.7% | 59.3% |
Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Hamilton | Queen |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 39.8% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 43.6% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 34.0% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 29.4% | 0.0% |
Cove Rangers v Ross County
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Cove | Ross |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 60.2% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 52.9% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 62.3% |
Ross County v Alloa Athletic
Sat 3 Oct
| Promotion chance | Ross | Alloa |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 60.2% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 61.7% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 52.2% | 0.1% |
| Away win | 47.2% | 0.2% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Scottish League One rules — 1 automatic promotion places, 4 play-off places, 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.