Scottish League Two winner predictor 2026/27
Clyde are our current favourites for the champions, projected to finish on 52.4 points. Stirling Albion carry the highest relegation risk at 66.2%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Scottish League Two winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 35 of 135 matches played (26%) · updated 4 hours ago
Current favourite
Clyde 50.4% promotion chance
Projected 52.4 points (range 45–59), 20 games left. Average simulated finish 1.9.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Promotion | Play-offs | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde7 pl · GD +9 | 16 | WWDWW | 50.4%21.4 | 48.8% | 0.0% | 52.445–59 | Average |
| 2 | The Spartans7 pl · GD +7 | 12 | LDDWW | 18.9%12.8 | 77.6% | 0.0% | 47.741–55 | Average |
| 3 | Elgin City7 pl · GD +9 | 11 | WDWLL | 19.5%38.2 | 76.9% | 0.0% | 47.540–54 | Average |
| 4 | Stranraer7 pl · GD +5 | 13 | WDWWW | 10.1%3.9 | 82.6% | 0.0% | 45.638–53 | Average |
| 5 | Annan Athletic7 pl · GD 0 | 9 | LLWLW | 0.8%0.6 | 51.2% | 0.4% | 37.530–45 | Average |
| 6 | Edinburgh City7 pl · GD +2 | 6 | WWDLW | 0.3%0.3 | 36.4% | 1.0% | 35.228–42 | Average |
| 7 | Kelty Hearts7 pl · GD -5 | 9 | LWLWL | 0.1%0.4 | 15.2% | 3.3% | 31.925–39 | Average |
| 8 | Forfar Athletic7 pl · GD -6 | 8 | WLDLL | 0.0%0.3 | 9.3% | 5.7% | 30.323–37 | Average |
| 9 | Dumbarton7 pl · GD -9 | 6 | LLLWL | 0.0% | 1.6% | 23.4% | 25.419–32 | Average |
| 10 | Stirling Albion7 pl · GD -12 | 4 | LDLLL | 0.0% | 0.3% | 66.2% | 20.915–28 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Dumbarton v The Spartans
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Dumbarton | The |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 18.9% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 11.9% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 15.1% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 22.6% |
Stirling Albion v Clyde
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Stirling | Clyde |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 50.4% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 39.3% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 44.8% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 56.8% |
Elgin City v Stranraer
Sat 19 Sept
| Promotion chance | Elgin | Stranraer |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 19.5% | 10.1% |
| Home win | 23.5% | 7.1% |
| Draw | 15.9% | 11.0% |
| Away win | 11.6% | 17.5% |
Elgin City v Clyde
Sat 3 Oct
| Promotion chance | Elgin | Clyde |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 19.5% | 50.4% |
| Home win | 26.6% | 42.4% |
| Draw | 15.9% | 52.8% |
| Away win | 9.5% | 65.4% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Scottish League Two rules — 1 automatic promotion places, 4 play-off places, 1 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.