Scottish Premiership winner predictor 2026/27
Celtic are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 64.2 points. Kilmarnock carry the highest relegation risk at 80.8%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Scottish Premiership winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 36 of 174 matches played (21%) · updated 4 hours ago
Current favourite
Celtic 90.5% title chance
Projected 64.2 points (range 57–72), 23 games left. Average simulated finish 1.1.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic6 pl · GD +11 | 18 | WWWWW | 90.5%8.0 | 99.9% | 0.0% | 64.257–72 | Average |
| 2 | Heart of Midlothian6 pl · GD +6 | 12 | WWWWL | 5.5%6.5 | 85.8% | 0.1% | 50.543–58 | Average |
| 3 | Rangers6 pl · GD +3 | 13 | LWWWW | 2.9%0.1 | 76.4% | 0.1% | 48.541–56 | Average |
| 4 | St Mirren6 pl · GD +2 | 10 | WDWLL | 0.7%0.2 | 54.7% | 0.7% | 44.637–52 | Average |
| 5 | Dundee6 pl · GD +1 | 7 | WWLDL | 0.3%0.2 | 27.9% | 2.4% | 40.633–48 | Average |
| 6 | Motherwell6 pl · GD -1 | 8 | DDWLL | 0.1%1.7 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 38.330–46 | Average |
| 7 | Aberdeen6 pl · GD -1 | 7 | LLLDW | 0.1%0.1 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 38.231–46 | Average |
| 8 | St Johnstone6 pl · GD -1 | 7 | LLDWL | 0.1%0.1 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 38.130–46 | Average |
| 9 | Hibernian6 pl · GD -3 | 6 | WWLLL | 0.0%0.1 | 4.6% | 21.1% | 33.826–41 | Average |
| 10 | Falkirk6 pl · GD -3 | 5 | DLLDW | 0.0% | 2.4% | 31.1% | 31.724–39 | Average |
| 11 | Dundee United6 pl · GD -5 | 5 | LLWLD | 0.0% | 1.2% | 44.3% | 3023–38 | Average |
| 12 | Kilmarnock6 pl · GD -9 | 4 | LLLDW | 0.0% | 0.1% | 80.8% | 24.518–32 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | Kilmarnock | Heart |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| Home win | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Draw | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| Away win | 0.0% | 6.6% |
Celtic v Rangers
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | Celtic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 90.5% | 2.9% |
| Home win | 93.3% | 1.5% |
| Draw | 88.9% | 3.4% |
| Away win | 83.6% | 7.3% |
Heart of Midlothian v St Mirren
Sat 10 Oct
| Title chance | Heart | St |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 5.5% | 0.7% |
| Home win | 6.3% | 0.5% |
| Draw | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Away win | 2.9% | 1.5% |
Motherwell v Celtic
Sun 11 Oct
| Title chance | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.1% | 90.5% |
| Home win | 0.2% | 87.3% |
| Draw | 0.1% | 89.4% |
| Away win | 0.1% | 93.0% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Scottish Premiership rules — 2 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.