Serie A winner predictor 2026/27
AS Roma are our current favourites for the title, projected to finish on 58.4 points. Venezia carry the highest relegation risk at 72.8%. Every probability is recalculated automatically as results come in.
Serie A winner predictor
4,000 season simulations · 40 of 260 matches played (15%) · updated 4 hours ago
Current favourite
AS Roma 71.1% title chance
Projected 58.4 points (range 51–65), 22 games left. Average simulated finish 1.5.
| # | Club | Pts | Form | Title | Europe | Relegation | Proj. pts | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma4 pl · GD +11 | 12 | WWWW | 71.1%11.8 | 99.1% | 0.0% | 58.451–65 | Average |
| 2 | Inter Milan4 pl · GD +7 | 12 | WWWW | 18.3%1.0 | 91.8% | 0.0% | 52.245–60 | Average |
| 3 | Como4 pl · GD +5 | 10 | DWWW | 5.3%1.1 | 73.6% | 0.0% | 47.940–55 | Average |
| 4 | Lazio4 pl · GD +3 | 10 | WWWD | 2.0%5.1 | 54.4% | 0.1% | 44.837–53 | Average |
| 5 | AC Milan4 pl · GD +3 | 8 | WWDD | 0.9%1.5 | 36.5% | 0.2% | 42.235–50 | Average |
| 6 | Cagliari4 pl · GD +2 | 9 | WLWW | 1.0%0.7 | 34.5% | 0.1% | 42.135–50 | Average |
| 7 | Frosinone4 pl · GD +3 | 7 | LWWD | 0.8%1.7 | 33.7% | 0.1% | 41.834–50 | Average |
| 8 | Juventus4 pl · GD +2 | 7 | WWDL | 0.3%2.7 | 28.6% | 0.3% | 40.933–48 | Average |
| 9 | Sassuolo4 pl · GD +1 | 7 | LWDW | 0.1% | 15.6% | 0.9% | 38.231–46 | Average |
| 10 | Atalanta4 pl · GD 0 | 6 | WWLL | 0.1%1.2 | 10.5% | 1.3% | 36.829–45 | Average |
| 11 | Napoli4 pl · GD +1 | 6 | WLLW | 0.1% | 10.8% | 1.6% | 36.429–44 | Average |
| 12 | Lecce4 pl · GD -2 | 6 | WLLW | 0.1%0.1 | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3527–43 | Average |
| 13 | Udinese4 pl · GD -2 | 4 | DWLL | 0.0%0.3 | 3.6% | 5.1% | 33.526–41 | Average |
| 14 | Torino4 pl · GD -3 | 3 | LLWL | 0.0% | 0.6% | 15.6% | 29.122–36 | Average |
| 15 | Bologna4 pl · GD -3 | 1 | LLDL | 0.0% | 0.2% | 29.6% | 26.519–34 | Average |
| 16 | Fiorentina4 pl · GD -6 | 3 | LLLW | 0.0% | 0.1% | 37.9% | 25.718–33 | Average |
| 17 | Parma4 pl · GD -4 | 1 | LLDL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 39.7% | 2518–32 | Average |
| 18 | Monza4 pl · GD -5 | 1 | LLDL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 45.4% | 24.417–32 | Average |
| 19 | Genoa4 pl · GD -6 | 1 | LLLD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.4% | 24.217–31 | Average |
| 20 | Venezia4 pl · GD -7 | 0 | LLLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 72.8% | 20.514–28 | Average |
Matches that could change everything
AS Roma v Inter Milan
Sat 19 Sept
| Title chance | AS | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 71.1% | 18.3% |
| Home win | 78.0% | 11.9% |
| Draw | 65.6% | 20.0% |
| Away win | 53.4% | 32.8% |
Frosinone v Como
Sun 20 Sept
| Title chance | Frosinone | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 0.8% | 5.3% |
| Home win | 1.5% | 3.6% |
| Draw | 0.9% | 5.3% |
| Away win | 0.5% | 8.6% |
Inter Milan v Parma
Sat 10 Oct
| Title chance | Inter | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| Home win | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Draw | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Away win | 10.9% | 0.0% |
Como v AS Roma
Sun 11 Oct
| Title chance | Como | AS |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 5.3% | 71.1% |
| Home win | 9.8% | 63.1% |
| Draw | 4.6% | 71.5% |
| Away win | 2.1% | 81.2% |
Probabilities come from 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture, using an Elo-style strength rating with home advantage, recent form and goal difference. Model fg-predictor-1.0.0. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How the predictor works
Each club gets an Elo-style strength rating built from every recorded result this season, weighted for margin of victory and adjusted for home advantage. Attack and defence ratings feed a Poisson scoreline model that produces win, draw and loss probabilities for every remaining fixture. We then simulate the rest of the season 4,000 times, applying Serie A rules — 3 relegation places — and count how often each club finishes in each position.