Ammanford v Holywell Town
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 3 Oct, 13:30
Data: good
- Ammanford win
- 53%
- Draw
- 20%
- Holywell Town win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Ammanford to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Ammanford strength rating 1558 v Holywell Town 1540
- Ammanford home record this season: 0W 1D 3L
- Holywell Town away form: 0W 0D 4L, 5 scored / 17 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Ammanford -17 v Holywell Town -23
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 50%, recent form 64%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model64%
Component disagreement: 14.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.