Match predictor

• Deportivo de A Coruña strength rating 1635 v Sevilla FC 1629
• Superior goal difference: Deportivo de A Coruña +3 v Sevilla FC +2
• Deportivo de A Coruña unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 47%, goals 47%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Sevilla FC are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Atlético Madrid strength rating 1642 v CA Osasuna 1611
• Superior goal difference: Atlético Madrid +4 v CA Osasuna -3
• Atlético Madrid have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 52%, goals 58%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Altrincham strength rating 1365 v Hartlepool United 1375
• Altrincham home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Hartlepool United away form: 1W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Altrincham have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 44%, goals 38%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Kidderminster Harriers strength rating 1408 v Gateshead 1350
• Kidderminster Harriers home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
• Gateshead away form: 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Kidderminster Harriers +5 v Gateshead -8
• Kidderminster Harriers unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 63% (Elo 57%, goals 64%, recent form 76%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Boreham Wood strength rating 1421 v Scunthorpe United 1371
• Boreham Wood away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
• Scunthorpe United home form: 1W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Boreham Wood +8 v Scunthorpe United -2
• Boreham Wood unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 45%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Wolverhampton Wanderers strength rating 1580 v Portsmouth 1555
• Superior goal difference: Wolverhampton Wanderers +5 v Portsmouth -1
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 51%, goals 60%, recent form 56%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Levante strength rating 1611 v Athletic Club 1624
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 40%, recent form 37%)

Main uncertainty: Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• FC Barcelona strength rating 1681 v Racing de Santander 1620
• Superior goal difference: FC Barcelona +17 v Racing de Santander 0
• FC Barcelona unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 66% (Elo 57%, goals 75%, recent form 72%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Real Betis strength rating 1633 v Getafe CF 1610
• Superior goal difference: Real Betis +1 v Getafe CF -3
• Real Betis have won 4 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 51%, goals 51%, recent form 74%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. Getafe CF are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• AFC Wimbledon strength rating 1501 v Milton Keynes Dons 1491
• AFC Wimbledon home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Milton Keynes Dons away form: 0W 2D 1L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
• AFC Wimbledon have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 44%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. Milton Keynes Dons are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Málaga strength rating 1601 v Villarreal CF 1601
• Villarreal CF away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Villarreal CF played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 38%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Groningen strength rating 1619 v PEC Zwolle 1583
• Groningen home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• PEC Zwolle away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Groningen -1 v PEC Zwolle -11
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 53%, goals 63%, recent form 50%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bayern Munich strength rating 1639 v Union Berlin 1597
• Superior goal difference: Bayern Munich +5 v Union Berlin -6
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 54%, goals 68%, recent form 84%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 30 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Queen's Park strength rating 1532 v Ayr United 1544
• Queen's Park home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Ayr United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 44%, goals 35%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Airbus UK strength rating 1613 v Flint Town United 1573
• Airbus UK home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Flint Town United away form: 0W 1D 4L, 3 scored / 13 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Airbus UK -1 v Flint Town United -13
• Flint Town United played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 54%, goals 62%, recent form 71%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Penybont strength rating 1660 v Ammanford 1558
• Penybont away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
• Ammanford home form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 14 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Penybont +8 v Ammanford -17
• Penybont unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Ammanford played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 45%, goals 61%, recent form 69%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Connah's Quay Nomads strength rating 1666 v Cardiff Metropolitan University 1648
• Connah's Quay Nomads home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
• Cardiff Metropolitan University away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 2 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Connah's Quay Nomads +15 v Cardiff Metropolitan University +9
• Connah's Quay Nomads have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: Cardiff Metropolitan University are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Cardiff Metropolitan University have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Colwyn Bay strength rating 1638 v Barry Town United 1672
• Colwyn Bay home record this season: 4W 0D 0L
• Barry Town United away form: 3W 0D 1L, 10 scored / 5 conceded
• Colwyn Bay have won 3 of their last 5
• Barry Town United played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 39%, goals 37%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: Barry Town United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Caernarfon Town strength rating 1667 v Cambrian United 1641
• Caernarfon Town home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Cambrian United away form: 2W 1D 2L, 10 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Caernarfon Town +14 v Cambrian United +5
• Caernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 5
• Cambrian United played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 51%, goals 57%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Cambrian United are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Briton Ferry Llansawel strength rating 1580 v Trefelin 1548
• Briton Ferry Llansawel home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Trefelin away form: 0W 1D 3L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Briton Ferry Llansawel -10 v Trefelin -20
• Trefelin played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 52%, goals 58%, recent form 63%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Haverfordwest County strength rating 1586 v Holywell Town 1540
• Haverfordwest County home record this season: 2W 0D 3L
• Holywell Town away form: 0W 0D 4L, 5 scored / 17 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Haverfordwest County -8 v Holywell Town -23
• Holywell Town played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 61% (Elo 55%, goals 59%, recent form 79%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Sassuolo strength rating 1625 v Monza 1598
• Superior goal difference: Sassuolo +1 v Monza -5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 33%, goals 41%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• AS Monaco strength rating 1642 v RC Lens 1617
• Superior goal difference: AS Monaco +4 v RC Lens +1
• AS Monaco unbeaten in their last 4 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 51%, goals 52%, recent form 70%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Yeovil Town strength rating 1382 v Solihull Moors 1331
• Yeovil Town home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
• Solihull Moors away form: 0W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 9 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Yeovil Town +1 v Solihull Moors -11
• Solihull Moors played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 61% (Elo 56%, goals 64%, recent form 68%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• RCD Espanyol strength rating 1623 v Elche 1584
• RCD Espanyol home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Elche away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: RCD Espanyol +2 v Elche -8
• Elche played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 53%, goals 62%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Brentford strength rating 1630 v Chelsea 1627
• Superior goal difference: Brentford +3 v Chelsea +1
• Brentford unbeaten in their last 4 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 47%, goals 52%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bristol City strength rating 1555 v Watford 1550
• Bristol City home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Watford away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
• Bristol City have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 45%, recent form 61%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• New York City FC strength rating 1620 v New York Red Bulls 1620
• Superior goal difference: New York City FC +6 v New York Red Bulls -15
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 46%, goals 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Hartlepool United strength rating 1375 v Worthing 1378
• Hartlepool United home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Worthing away form: 1W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 42%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Worthing are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Stoke City strength rating 1562 v Sheffield United 1554
• Stoke City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Sheffield United away form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Stoke City 0 v Sheffield United -1
• Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Tamworth strength rating 1350 v Wealdstone 1367
• Tamworth home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Wealdstone away form: 2W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 43%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Tottenham Hotspur strength rating 1599 v Aston Villa 1595
• Superior goal difference: Tottenham Hotspur -5 v Aston Villa -6
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 42%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Walsall strength rating 1459 v Port Vale 1424
• Walsall home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Port Vale away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 6 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Walsall +4 v Port Vale -4
• Walsall unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 69%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cardiff City strength rating 1541 v Charlton Athletic 1563
• Cardiff City home record this season: 0W 3D 0L
• Charlton Athletic away form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 6 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 42%, goals 39%, recent form 31%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Charlton Athletic are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Rochdale strength rating 1414 v Oldham Athletic 1438
• Rochdale home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Oldham Athletic away form: 0W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 34%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• West Ham United strength rating 1592 v Millwall 1557
• West Ham United away record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Millwall home form: 2W 0D 1L, 7 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: West Ham United +11 v Millwall 0
• West Ham United unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 33%, goals 47%, recent form 36%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Barnsley strength rating 1483 v Leicester City 1492
• Barnsley home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Leicester City away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 41%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Leicester City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Burton Albion strength rating 1502 v Mansfield Town 1491
• Burton Albion home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Mansfield Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Burton Albion 0 v Mansfield Town -3
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 48%, goals 52%, recent form 62%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• CA Osasuna strength rating 1611 v Rayo Vallecano 1608
• CA Osasuna home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Rayo Vallecano away form: 0W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 11 conceded
• Superior goal difference: CA Osasuna -3 v Rayo Vallecano -5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 47%, goals 49%, recent form 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cagliari strength rating 1632 v Udinese 1612
• Superior goal difference: Cagliari +2 v Udinese -2
• Cagliari have won 3 of their last 4
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 32%, goals 37%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bologna strength rating 1603 v Torino 1604
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 46%, goals 43%, recent form 30%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Mainz 05 strength rating 1626 v Borussia Mönchengladbach 1591
• Superior goal difference: Mainz 05 +3 v Borussia Mönchengladbach -9
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 33%, goals 52%, recent form 75%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 41 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• 1. FC Köln strength rating 1614 v Hamburger SV 1582
• Superior goal difference: 1. FC Köln -2 v Hamburger SV -12
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 33%, goals 49%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• SC Freiburg strength rating 1649 v Eintracht Frankfurt 1618
• Superior goal difference: SC Freiburg +9 v Eintracht Frankfurt -1
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 33%, goals 49%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 31 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Werder Bremen strength rating 1619 v FC Augsburg 1644
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 36%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: FC Augsburg are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Brighton & Hove Albion strength rating 1644 v Arsenal 1657
• Superior goal difference: Brighton & Hove Albion +8 v Arsenal +7
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 44%, recent form 31%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Chesterfield strength rating 1442 v York City 1457
• Chesterfield home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• York City away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 38%, recent form 36%)

Main uncertainty: York City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Newcastle United strength rating 1616 v Hull City 1635
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 37%, recent form 30%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Hull City are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Accrington Stanley strength rating 1428 v Newport County 1431
• Accrington Stanley home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Newport County away form: 0W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 46%, goals 45%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• St Mirren strength rating 1630 v Dundee United 1604
• St Mirren home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Dundee United away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: St Mirren +2 v Dundee United -5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 51%, goals 56%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• St Johnstone strength rating 1614 v Falkirk 1604
• St Johnstone home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Falkirk away form: 0W 2D 1L, 2 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: St Johnstone -1 v Falkirk -3
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Hibernian strength rating 1604 v Aberdeen 1618
• Hibernian home record this season: 0W 0D 3L
• Aberdeen away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 41%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bangor strength rating 1571 v Portadown 1573
• Bangor home record this season: 0W 1D 2L
• Portadown away form: 0W 0D 3L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 46%, goals 41%, recent form 65%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Larne strength rating 1648 v Carrick Rangers 1620
• Carrick Rangers home form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Larne +6 v Carrick Rangers +1
• Larne unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 39%, recent form 50%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Limited data recorded for this fixture so far this season. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cliftonville strength rating 1632 v Glentoran 1615
• Cliftonville home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Glentoran away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Cliftonville +3 v Glentoran 0
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 49%, goals 49%, recent form 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Linfield strength rating 1641 v Crusaders 1627
• Linfield home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
• Crusaders away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Linfield +3 v Crusaders +1
• Linfield unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 49%, recent form 53%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Dungannon Swifts strength rating 1627 v Ballymena United 1613
• Dungannon Swifts home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Ballymena United away form: 1W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Dungannon Swifts +1 v Ballymena United -1
• Dungannon Swifts have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 48%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Eastleigh strength rating 1381 v Carlisle United 1387
• Eastleigh home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
• Carlisle United away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: Carlisle United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Aldershot Town strength rating 1400 v Barrow 1364
• Aldershot Town away record this season: 2W 2D 0L
• Barrow home form: 1W 0D 2L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Aldershot Town +4 v Barrow -2
• Aldershot Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 38%, recent form 48%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Barrow are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Kidderminster Harriers strength rating 1408 v Woking 1367
• Kidderminster Harriers away record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Woking home form: 2W 1D 1L, 9 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Kidderminster Harriers +5 v Woking -2
• Kidderminster Harriers unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 34%, goals 40%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: Woking are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• FC Halifax Town strength rating 1388 v Sutton United 1380
• FC Halifax Town home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
• Sutton United away form: 2W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: FC Halifax Town +3 v Sutton United 0
• FC Halifax Town have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Boreham Wood strength rating 1421 v Harrogate Town 1407
• Boreham Wood home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Harrogate Town away form: 2W 0D 1L, 6 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Boreham Wood +8 v Harrogate Town +7
• Boreham Wood unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 51%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: Harrogate Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Dundee strength rating 1622 v Motherwell 1614
• Dundee home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Motherwell away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Dundee +1 v Motherwell -1
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Birmingham City strength rating 1568 v Middlesbrough 1581
• Birmingham City home record this season: 0W 3D 0L
• Middlesbrough away form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 3 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Ross County strength rating 1546 v Cove Rangers 1484
• Ross County away record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Cove Rangers home form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 1 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Ross County +16 v Cove Rangers -4
• Ross County unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 37%, goals 61%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. Cove Rangers have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Portsmouth strength rating 1552 v Blackburn Rovers 1554
• Portsmouth home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Blackburn Rovers away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 43%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Queens Park Rangers strength rating 1576 v Preston North End 1523
• Queens Park Rangers home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Preston North End away form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Queens Park Rangers +3 v Preston North End -7
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 56%, goals 58%, recent form 73%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Lincoln City strength rating 1565 v Swansea City 1587
• Lincoln City home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• Swansea City away form: 2W 0D 1L, 6 scored / 4 conceded
• Lincoln City unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 42%, goals 33%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Swansea City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Dunfermline Athletic strength rating 1565 v Greenock Morton 1519
• Dunfermline Athletic away record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• Greenock Morton home form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Dunfermline Athletic +1 v Greenock Morton -8
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 34%, goals 44%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Partick Thistle strength rating 1575 v Raith Rovers 1591
• Partick Thistle home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Raith Rovers away form: 2W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 2 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 43%, goals 32%, recent form 39%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Raith Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Raith Rovers have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.

• Stenhousemuir strength rating 1598 v Arbroath 1553
• Stenhousemuir home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
• Arbroath away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Stenhousemuir +8 v Arbroath -4
• Stenhousemuir unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 54%, goals 65%, recent form 62%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Arbroath are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• East Fife strength rating 1503 v Montrose 1504
• East Fife home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Montrose away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: East Fife +1 v Montrose -1
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 47%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Montrose are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Alloa Athletic strength rating 1509 v East Kilbride 1499
• Alloa Athletic home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• East Kilbride away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Alloa Athletic +3 v East Kilbride +1
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Luton Town strength rating 1500 v Bradford City 1511
• Luton Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Bradford City away form: 2W 0D 1L, 2 scored / 2 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 40%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Bradford City have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Wigan Athletic strength rating 1472 v Wycombe Wanderers 1489
• Wigan Athletic home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Wycombe Wanderers away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 8 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 42%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Blackpool strength rating 1505 v Plymouth Argyle 1507
• Blackpool home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Plymouth Argyle away form: 1W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 46%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: Plymouth Argyle are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Oxford United strength rating 1526 v Cambridge United 1511
• Cambridge United away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Oxford United +6 v Cambridge United +2
• Oxford United have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 54%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Peterborough United strength rating 1479 v Doncaster Rovers 1483
• Peterborough United home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Doncaster Rovers away form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 45%, goals 39%, recent form 63%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Barnet strength rating 1464 v Fleetwood Town 1454
• Barnet home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Fleetwood Town away form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Barnet +5 v Fleetwood Town +3
• Barnet unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 48%, goals 46%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Colchester United strength rating 1434 v Cheltenham Town 1456
• Colchester United home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Cheltenham Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 42%, goals 38%, recent form 43%)

Main uncertainty: Cheltenham Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Gillingham strength rating 1449 v Bristol Rovers 1458
• Gillingham home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Bristol Rovers away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Gillingham unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 39%)

Main uncertainty: Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Exeter City strength rating 1433 v Tranmere Rovers 1448
• Exeter City home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Tranmere Rovers away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Tranmere Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Northampton Town strength rating 1431 v Rotherham United 1435
• Northampton Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Rotherham United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 40%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Rotherham United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Salford City strength rating 1430 v Swindon Town 1439
• Salford City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Swindon Town away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 45%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Elgin City strength rating 1462 v Stranraer 1460
• Elgin City home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Stranraer away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Elgin City +9 v Stranraer +5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 51%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Stranraer are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Kelty Hearts strength rating 1426 v Edinburgh City 1447
• Kelty Hearts home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
• Edinburgh City away form: 1W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 42%, goals 39%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: Edinburgh City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Clyde strength rating 1474 v Stirling Albion 1401
• Clyde away record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Stirling Albion home form: 1W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Clyde +9 v Stirling Albion -12
• Clyde unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 39%, goals 60%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• AFC Fylde strength rating 1420 v Altrincham 1365
• AFC Fylde home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Altrincham away form: 1W 0D 3L, 3 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: AFC Fylde +8 v Altrincham -5
• AFC Fylde unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 56%, goals 66%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Altrincham are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Forest Green Rovers strength rating 1382 v Boston United 1366
• Forest Green Rovers home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Boston United away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Forest Green Rovers +1 v Boston United -2
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 48%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Everton strength rating 1628 v Ipswich Town 1610
• Superior goal difference: Everton +2 v Ipswich Town -3
• Everton unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 56%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Grimsby Town strength rating 1454 v Crawley Town 1413
• Grimsby Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Crawley Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Grimsby Town +3 v Crawley Town -5
• Grimsby Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 54%, goals 59%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Peterhead strength rating 1472 v Airdrieonians 1479
• Peterhead home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Airdrieonians away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 6 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 41%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Livingston strength rating 1570 v Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1553
• Livingston home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Inverness Caledonian Thistle away form: 1W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Livingston +3 v Inverness Caledonian Thistle -2
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 52%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Burnley strength rating 1528 v Derby County 1529
• Burnley home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• Derby County away form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 46%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Huddersfield Town strength rating 1525 v Bromley 1464
• Huddersfield Town away record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Bromley home form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Huddersfield Town +6 v Bromley -11
• Huddersfield Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 36%, goals 56%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Leyton Orient strength rating 1504 v Stevenage 1515
• Leyton Orient home record this season: 0W 0D 3L
• Stevenage away form: 1W 2D 0L, 6 scored / 2 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 45%, recent form 29%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Stevenage are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Stevenage have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.

• Hamilton Academical strength rating 1545 v Queen of the South 1458
• Hamilton Academical home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
• Queen of the South away form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 15 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Hamilton Academical +12 v Queen of the South -15
• Hamilton Academical unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 73% (Elo 61%, goals 85%, recent form 80%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Reading strength rating 1510 v Notts County 1498
• Reading home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Notts County away form: 0W 3D 0L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Reading +5 v Notts County 0
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 54%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: Notts County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Sheffield Wednesday strength rating 1527 v Stockport County 1515
• Sheffield Wednesday home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Stockport County away form: 2W 0D 1L, 7 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Sheffield Wednesday +7 v Stockport County +6
• Sheffield Wednesday have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 48%, goals 51%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Southend United strength rating 1407 v Gateshead 1350
• Southend United away record this season: 2W 2D 0L
• Gateshead home form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 2 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Southend United +6 v Gateshead -8
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 35%, goals 51%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. Gateshead have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Forfar Athletic strength rating 1420 v Annan Athletic 1436
• Forfar Athletic home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Annan Athletic away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 3 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 43%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Southampton strength rating 1594 v Wrexham 1554
• Southampton away record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• Wrexham home form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Southampton +10 v Wrexham -4
• Southampton unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 34%, goals 51%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Wrexham are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Crewe Alexandra strength rating 1452 v Shrewsbury Town 1418
• Crewe Alexandra home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Shrewsbury Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Crewe Alexandra +2 v Shrewsbury Town -6
• Crewe Alexandra unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 67%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• The Spartans strength rating 1467 v Dumbarton 1407
• The Spartans away record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Dumbarton home form: 2W 0D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: The Spartans +7 v Dumbarton -9
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 36%, goals 53%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Athletic Club strength rating 1624 v Alavés 1632
• Athletic Club home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 39%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• ADO Den Haag strength rating 1578 v Cambuur 1582
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 46%, recent form 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Nacional strength rating 1597 v Famalicão 1608
• Nacional home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Famalicão away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 44%, goals 41%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: Famalicão are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Gil Vicente strength rating 1618 v Marítimo 1605
• Gil Vicente home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Marítimo away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Gil Vicente 0 v Marítimo -4
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Paris FC strength rating 1637 v RC Strasbourg 1630
• Superior goal difference: Paris FC +4 v RC Strasbourg +1
• Paris FC unbeaten in their last 4 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 53%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: RC Strasbourg are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• AS Roma strength rating 1663 v Inter Milan 1650
• Superior goal difference: AS Roma +11 v Inter Milan +7
• AS Roma unbeaten in their last 4 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 58%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Borussia Dortmund strength rating 1644 v VfB Stuttgart 1614
• Superior goal difference: Borussia Dortmund +6 v VfB Stuttgart -2
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 33%, goals 45%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Celta Vigo strength rating 1602 v Racing de Santander 1620
• Celta Vigo home record this season: 0W 1D 2L
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 38%, recent form 37%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Nottingham Forest strength rating 1620 v Coventry City 1582
• Superior goal difference: Nottingham Forest 0 v Coventry City -10
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 53%, goals 63%, recent form 81%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 28 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• The New Saints strength rating 1693 v Llandudno 1636
• The New Saints home record this season: 5W 0D 0L
• Llandudno away form: 1W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: The New Saints +21 v Llandudno +5
• The New Saints unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 56%, goals 67%, recent form 68%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Hornchurch strength rating 1374 v Scunthorpe United 1371
• Hornchurch home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Scunthorpe United away form: 1W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 47%, goals 46%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Heart of Midlothian strength rating 1642 v Kilmarnock 1584
• Heart of Midlothian away record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Kilmarnock home form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Heart of Midlothian +6 v Kilmarnock -9
• Heart of Midlothian have won 4 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 36%, goals 56%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Sparta Rotterdam strength rating 1611 v Heerenveen 1607
• Sparta Rotterdam home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 47%, goals 46%, recent form 37%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Coleraine strength rating 1675 v Limavady United 1599
• Coleraine home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Superior goal difference: Coleraine +12 v Limavady United -4
• Coleraine unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 63% (Elo 60%, goals 71%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Alverca strength rating 1609 v Rio Ave 1589
• Alverca home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• Rio Ave away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Alverca -3 v Rio Ave -9
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 57%, recent form 43%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Ajax strength rating 1661 v Excelsior 1639
• Ajax home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Excelsior away form: 2W 1D 0L, 9 scored / 2 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Ajax +12 v Excelsior +6
• Ajax have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 50%, goals 56%, recent form 37%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. Excelsior are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Excelsior have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.