FC Porto v Estoril
18+Primeira Liga · Sat 31 Oct, 20:30
Data: good
- FC Porto win
- 75%
- Draw
- 13%
- Estoril win
- 12%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Porto to win
Model probability 75%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score60 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Porto strength rating 1696 v Estoril 1569
- FC Porto home record this season: 4W 0D 0L
- Estoril away form: 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: FC Porto +17 v Estoril -10
- FC Porto unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 75% (Elo 67%, goals 79%, recent form 87%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model67%
- Goals model79%
- Recent-form model87%
Component disagreement: 20.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 75% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 75%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.