Famalicão v Arouca
18+Primeira Liga · Fri 6 Nov, 20:45
Data: good
- Famalicão win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Arouca win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Famalicão to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Famalicão strength rating 1625 v Arouca 1641
- Famalicão home record this season: 0W 2D 2L
- Arouca away form: 2W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 40%, recent form 32%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Arouca are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Arouca have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model32%
Component disagreement: 11.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.