Excelsior v FC Twente
18+Eredivisie · Sun 1 Nov, 13:30
Data: excellent
- Excelsior win
- 33%
- Draw
- 25%
- FC Twente win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Twente to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Twente strength rating 1656 v Excelsior 1605
- FC Twente away record this season: 2W 2D 1L
- Excelsior home form: 1W 0D 3L, 5 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: FC Twente +9 v Excelsior -3
- FC Twente have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 44%, recent form 58%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model58%
Component disagreement: 22.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.