Match predictor

• Portsmouth strength rating 1565 v Swansea City 1583
• Portsmouth home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
• Swansea City away form: 4W 0D 2L, 9 scored / 10 conceded
• Portsmouth have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 39%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Norwich City strength rating 1551 v Derby County 1514
• Norwich City away record this season: 2W 0D 4L
• Derby County home form: 0W 2D 4L, 4 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Norwich City -1 v Derby County -14
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 34%, goals 46%, recent form 48%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Charlton Athletic strength rating 1534 v Bolton Wanderers 1537
• Charlton Athletic home record this season: 2W 3D 1L
• Bolton Wanderers away form: 2W 2D 2L, 9 scored / 11 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 46%, goals 42%, recent form 31%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Sheffield United strength rating 1566 v Preston North End 1492
• Sheffield United away record this season: 2W 2D 2L
• Preston North End home form: 1W 1D 4L, 5 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Sheffield United +2 v Preston North End -17
• Sheffield United have won 3 of their last 5
• Preston North End played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 39%, goals 50%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Watford strength rating 1517 v Lincoln City 1530
• Watford home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
• Lincoln City away form: 3W 1D 2L, 6 scored / 7 conceded
• Lincoln City played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Queens Park Rangers strength rating 1588 v Burnley 1528
• Queens Park Rangers home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Burnley away form: 1W 1D 4L, 9 scored / 15 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Queens Park Rangers +7 v Burnley -8
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 57%, goals 62%, recent form 60%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Blackburn Rovers strength rating 1569 v Stoke City 1579
• Blackburn Rovers home record this season: 4W 0D 2L
• Stoke City away form: 3W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 10 conceded
• Blackburn Rovers have won 3 of their last 5
• Stoke City played just 3 days ago
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 44%, goals 43%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Birmingham City strength rating 1599 v Millwall 1552
• Birmingham City home record this season: 2W 4D 0L
• Millwall away form: 2W 1D 3L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Birmingham City +10 v Millwall +2
• Birmingham City have won 4 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 55%, goals 56%, recent form 61%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• West Bromwich Albion strength rating 1578 v Southampton 1606
• West Bromwich Albion home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Southampton away form: 2W 2D 2L, 8 scored / 8 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 41%, goals 35%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Southampton are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• West Ham United strength rating 1610 v Cardiff City 1562
• West Ham United away record this season: 3W 3D 0L
• Cardiff City home form: 3W 3D 0L, 13 scored / 6 conceded
• Superior goal difference: West Ham United +16 v Cardiff City 0
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 34%, goals 47%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Cardiff City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Middlesbrough strength rating 1608 v Wrexham 1548
• Middlesbrough away record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Wrexham home form: 2W 2D 2L, 10 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Middlesbrough +11 v Wrexham -4
• Middlesbrough unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 36%, goals 46%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bristol City strength rating 1546 v Wolverhampton Wanderers 1577
• Bristol City home record this season: 2W 0D 4L
• Wolverhampton Wanderers away form: 3W 1D 2L, 10 scored / 9 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 40%, goals 34%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Wolverhampton Wanderers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bolton Wanderers strength rating 1537 v Derby County 1514
• Bolton Wanderers away record this season: 2W 2D 2L
• Derby County home form: 0W 2D 4L, 4 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Bolton Wanderers -7 v Derby County -14
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 32%, goals 39%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Wrexham strength rating 1548 v Wolverhampton Wanderers 1577
• Wrexham home record this season: 2W 2D 2L
• Wolverhampton Wanderers away form: 3W 1D 2L, 10 scored / 9 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 40%, goals 34%, recent form 36%)

Main uncertainty: Wolverhampton Wanderers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bristol City strength rating 1546 v Norwich City 1551
• Bristol City home record this season: 2W 0D 4L
• Norwich City away form: 2W 0D 4L, 10 scored / 12 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 43%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Portsmouth strength rating 1565 v Stoke City 1579
• Portsmouth home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
• Stoke City away form: 3W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 10 conceded
• Portsmouth have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 41%, recent form 37%)

Main uncertainty: Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Middlesbrough strength rating 1608 v Watford 1517
• Middlesbrough away record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Watford home form: 3W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 9 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Middlesbrough +11 v Watford -11
• Middlesbrough unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 42%, goals 55%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Birmingham City strength rating 1599 v Swansea City 1583
• Birmingham City home record this season: 2W 4D 0L
• Swansea City away form: 4W 0D 2L, 9 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Birmingham City +10 v Swansea City +4
• Birmingham City have won 4 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• West Ham United strength rating 1610 v Blackburn Rovers 1569
• West Ham United away record this season: 3W 3D 0L
• Blackburn Rovers home form: 4W 0D 2L, 11 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: West Ham United +16 v Blackburn Rovers +2
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 34%, goals 44%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Blackburn Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cardiff City strength rating 1562 v Burnley 1528
• Cardiff City home record this season: 3W 3D 0L
• Burnley away form: 1W 1D 4L, 9 scored / 15 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Cardiff City 0 v Burnley -8
• Cardiff City have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 62%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• West Bromwich Albion strength rating 1578 v Millwall 1552
• West Bromwich Albion home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Millwall away form: 2W 1D 3L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
• Superior goal difference: West Bromwich Albion +4 v Millwall +2
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 51%, goals 48%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Sheffield United strength rating 1566 v Charlton Athletic 1534
• Sheffield United away record this season: 2W 2D 2L
• Charlton Athletic home form: 2W 3D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Sheffield United +2 v Charlton Athletic -8
• Sheffield United have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 40%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Charlton Athletic have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Southampton strength rating 1606 v Preston North End 1492
• Southampton away record this season: 2W 2D 2L
• Preston North End home form: 1W 1D 4L, 5 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Southampton +13 v Preston North End -17
• Southampton have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 47%, goals 63%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Queens Park Rangers strength rating 1588 v Lincoln City 1530
• Queens Park Rangers home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Lincoln City away form: 3W 1D 2L, 6 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Queens Park Rangers +7 v Lincoln City -9
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 57%, goals 63%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Southampton strength rating 1606 v Derby County 1514
• Southampton home record this season: 5W 1D 0L
• Derby County away form: 1W 2D 3L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Southampton +13 v Derby County -14
• Southampton have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 67% (Elo 62%, goals 74%, recent form 68%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Norwich City strength rating 1551 v Cardiff City 1562
• Norwich City home record this season: 3W 0D 4L
• Cardiff City away form: 0W 2D 4L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 44%, goals 46%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Cardiff City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Millwall strength rating 1552 v Queens Park Rangers 1588
• Millwall home record this season: 2W 2D 2L
• Queens Park Rangers away form: 2W 3D 1L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 39%, goals 39%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Queens Park Rangers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bolton Wanderers strength rating 1537 v Portsmouth 1565
• Bolton Wanderers home record this season: 2W 0D 4L
• Portsmouth away form: 2W 2D 2L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 37%, recent form 36%)

Main uncertainty: Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Portsmouth have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Middlesbrough strength rating 1608 v Bristol City 1546
• Middlesbrough home record this season: 4W 2D 0L
• Bristol City away form: 2W 3D 1L, 9 scored / 9 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Middlesbrough +11 v Bristol City -3
• Middlesbrough unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 57%, goals 60%, recent form 56%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Lincoln City strength rating 1530 v Wrexham 1548
• Lincoln City home record this season: 1W 2D 4L
• Wrexham away form: 1W 3D 3L, 5 scored / 11 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 39%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Stoke City strength rating 1579 v Birmingham City 1599
• Stoke City home record this season: 4W 1D 2L
• Birmingham City away form: 4W 1D 2L, 9 scored / 6 conceded
• Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 42%, goals 38%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: Birmingham City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Birmingham City have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Wolverhampton Wanderers strength rating 1577 v Charlton Athletic 1534
• Wolverhampton Wanderers home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Charlton Athletic away form: 1W 2D 3L, 6 scored / 13 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Wolverhampton Wanderers +6 v Charlton Athletic -8
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 54%, goals 60%, recent form 71%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Sheffield United strength rating 1566 v Watford 1517
• Sheffield United home record this season: 3W 2D 2L
• Watford away form: 0W 1D 6L, 4 scored / 14 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Sheffield United +2 v Watford -11
• Sheffield United have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 55%, goals 58%, recent form 74%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• West Ham United strength rating 1610 v Preston North End 1492
• West Ham United home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
• Preston North End away form: 0W 1D 6L, 5 scored / 17 conceded
• Superior goal difference: West Ham United +16 v Preston North End -17
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 73% (Elo 66%, goals 81%, recent form 77%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Swansea City strength rating 1583 v West Bromwich Albion 1578
• Swansea City home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• West Bromwich Albion away form: 3W 1D 2L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
• Swansea City have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 47%, goals 42%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: West Bromwich Albion are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.