Match predictor

• Walsall strength rating 1459 v Port Vale 1424
• Walsall home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Port Vale away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 6 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Walsall +4 v Port Vale -4
• Walsall unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 69%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Rochdale strength rating 1414 v Oldham Athletic 1438
• Rochdale home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Oldham Athletic away form: 0W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 34%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Chesterfield strength rating 1442 v York City 1457
• Chesterfield home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• York City away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 38%, recent form 36%)

Main uncertainty: York City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Accrington Stanley strength rating 1428 v Newport County 1431
• Accrington Stanley home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Newport County away form: 0W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 46%, goals 45%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Colchester United strength rating 1434 v Cheltenham Town 1456
• Colchester United home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Cheltenham Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 42%, goals 38%, recent form 43%)

Main uncertainty: Cheltenham Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Gillingham strength rating 1449 v Bristol Rovers 1458
• Gillingham home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Bristol Rovers away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Gillingham unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 39%)

Main uncertainty: Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Exeter City strength rating 1433 v Tranmere Rovers 1448
• Exeter City home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Tranmere Rovers away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Tranmere Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Northampton Town strength rating 1431 v Rotherham United 1435
• Northampton Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Rotherham United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 40%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Rotherham United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Salford City strength rating 1430 v Swindon Town 1439
• Salford City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Swindon Town away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 45%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Barnet strength rating 1464 v Fleetwood Town 1454
• Barnet home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Fleetwood Town away form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Barnet +5 v Fleetwood Town +3
• Barnet unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 48%, goals 46%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Grimsby Town strength rating 1454 v Crawley Town 1413
• Grimsby Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Crawley Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Grimsby Town +3 v Crawley Town -5
• Grimsby Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 54%, goals 59%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Crewe Alexandra strength rating 1452 v Shrewsbury Town 1418
• Crewe Alexandra home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Shrewsbury Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Crewe Alexandra +2 v Shrewsbury Town -6
• Crewe Alexandra unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 67%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Barnet strength rating 1464 v Crawley Town 1413
• Barnet away record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Crawley Town home form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 6 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Barnet +5 v Crawley Town -5
• Barnet unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 35%, goals 47%, recent form 61%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 26 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cheltenham Town strength rating 1456 v Chesterfield 1442
• Cheltenham Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Chesterfield away form: 2W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Cheltenham Town +3 v Chesterfield 0
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 49%, goals 51%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: Chesterfield are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Tranmere Rovers strength rating 1448 v Walsall 1459
• Tranmere Rovers home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Walsall away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 2 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 44%, goals 39%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Walsall are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Walsall have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Newport County strength rating 1431 v Grimsby Town 1454
• Newport County home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Grimsby Town away form: 0W 3D 0L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 39%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Grimsby Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bristol Rovers strength rating 1458 v Exeter City 1433
• Bristol Rovers home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
• Exeter City away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Bristol Rovers +4 v Exeter City -1
• Bristol Rovers have won 4 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 51%, goals 51%, recent form 75%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Shrewsbury Town strength rating 1418 v Colchester United 1434
• Shrewsbury Town home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Colchester United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Fleetwood Town strength rating 1454 v Rochdale 1414
• Fleetwood Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Rochdale away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Fleetwood Town +3 v Rochdale -5
• Fleetwood Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 54%, goals 56%, recent form 68%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Port Vale strength rating 1419 v Northampton Town 1440
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 31%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Northampton Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Rotherham United strength rating 1435 v Crewe Alexandra 1452
• Rotherham United home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Crewe Alexandra away form: 1W 2D 0L, 2 scored / 1 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 38%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Crewe Alexandra are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Crewe Alexandra have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• York City strength rating 1457 v Gillingham 1449
• York City home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
• Gillingham away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 2 conceded
• Superior goal difference: York City +5 v Gillingham +2
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 48%, goals 50%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: Gillingham are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Gillingham have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Swindon Town strength rating 1439 v Accrington Stanley 1428
• Swindon Town home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
• Accrington Stanley away form: 0W 0D 3L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Swindon Town -2 v Accrington Stanley -3
• Swindon Town have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 74%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 26 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Oldham Athletic strength rating 1438 v Salford City 1430
• Oldham Athletic home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Salford City away form: 0W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Oldham Athletic +1 v Salford City -2
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 50%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Salford City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Chesterfield strength rating 1442 v Tranmere Rovers 1448
• Chesterfield home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
• Tranmere Rovers away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 41%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: Tranmere Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Rochdale strength rating 1414 v Swindon Town 1439
• Rochdale home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
• Swindon Town away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 41%, goals 39%, recent form 37%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Gillingham strength rating 1449 v Newport County 1431
• Gillingham home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
• Newport County away form: 0W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Gillingham +2 v Newport County -1
• Gillingham unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 51%, recent form 67%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Crewe Alexandra strength rating 1452 v Bristol Rovers 1458
• Crewe Alexandra home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Bristol Rovers away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Crewe Alexandra unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 43%)

Main uncertainty: Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Northampton Town strength rating 1431 v Oldham Athletic 1438
• Northampton Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Oldham Athletic away form: 0W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 45%, goals 36%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Salford City strength rating 1430 v Fleetwood Town 1454
• Salford City home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
• Fleetwood Town away form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 34%, recent form 39%)

Main uncertainty: Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Barnet strength rating 1464 v York City 1457
• Barnet home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• York City away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Barnet unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 47%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: York City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Exeter City strength rating 1433 v Rotherham United 1435
• Exeter City home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Rotherham United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 46%, goals 43%, recent form 56%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Rotherham United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Walsall strength rating 1459 v Crawley Town 1413
• Walsall home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Crawley Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Walsall +4 v Crawley Town -5
• Walsall unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 55%, goals 59%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Grimsby Town strength rating 1454 v Shrewsbury Town 1418
• Grimsby Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Shrewsbury Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Grimsby Town +3 v Shrewsbury Town -6
• Grimsby Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 53%, goals 59%, recent form 70%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Accrington Stanley strength rating 1428 v Cheltenham Town 1456
• Accrington Stanley home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
• Cheltenham Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 38%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Cheltenham Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.