Match predictor

• Exeter City strength rating 1454 v Cheltenham Town 1443
• Exeter City home record this season: 4W 3D 0L
• Cheltenham Town away form: 1W 2D 3L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Exeter City +3 v Cheltenham Town +1
• Exeter City unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 48%, goals 45%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Salford City strength rating 1487 v Northampton Town 1437
• Salford City home record this season: 5W 0D 1L
• Northampton Town away form: 1W 2D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Salford City +9 v Northampton Town -1
• Salford City unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 55%, goals 51%, recent form 65%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. Northampton Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Bristol Rovers strength rating 1422 v Chesterfield 1449
• Bristol Rovers home record this season: 4W 1D 2L
• Chesterfield away form: 2W 1D 4L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 41%, goals 38%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Colchester United strength rating 1421 v Gillingham 1439
• Colchester United home record this season: 2W 3D 0L
• Gillingham away form: 2W 2D 2L, 10 scored / 9 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 35%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Port Vale strength rating 1429 v Accrington Stanley 1463
• Port Vale home record this season: 4W 2D 0L
• Accrington Stanley away form: 1W 3D 3L, 10 scored / 9 conceded
• Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 39%, goals 31%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Rotherham United strength rating 1415 v Crawley Town 1395
• Rotherham United home record this season: 1W 5D 1L
• Crawley Town away form: 1W 1D 3L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Rotherham United -6 v Crawley Town -9
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 50%, goals 50%, recent form 50%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Shrewsbury Town strength rating 1430 v Oldham Athletic 1417
• Shrewsbury Town home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
• Oldham Athletic away form: 0W 2D 4L, 3 scored / 11 conceded
• Shrewsbury Town have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 43%, recent form 67%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. Oldham Athletic are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Swindon Town strength rating 1434 v Grimsby Town 1456
• Swindon Town home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Grimsby Town away form: 1W 4D 2L, 11 scored / 10 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 34%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Grimsby Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Walsall strength rating 1464 v Barnet 1484
• Walsall home record this season: 3W 2D 1L
• Barnet away form: 3W 2D 0L, 12 scored / 7 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 42%, goals 46%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Barnet are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Rochdale strength rating 1406 v York City 1448
• Rochdale home record this season: 3W 1D 3L
• York City away form: 0W 3D 4L, 8 scored / 16 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 38%, goals 34%, recent form 53%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Crewe Alexandra strength rating 1450 v Newport County 1448
• Crewe Alexandra home record this season: 3W 3D 0L
• Newport County away form: 0W 3D 4L, 6 scored / 11 conceded
• Crewe Alexandra have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 47%, goals 40%, recent form 53%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Newport County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Fleetwood Town strength rating 1429 v Tranmere Rovers 1440
• Fleetwood Town home record this season: 2W 3D 1L
• Tranmere Rovers away form: 1W 4D 2L, 7 scored / 10 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Tranmere Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Newport County strength rating 1448 v Swindon Town 1434
• Newport County home record this season: 4W 3D 0L
• Swindon Town away form: 1W 2D 4L, 3 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Newport County +3 v Swindon Town -3
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 50%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Swindon Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Gillingham strength rating 1439 v Crewe Alexandra 1450
• Gillingham home record this season: 2W 3D 2L
• Crewe Alexandra away form: 2W 3D 2L, 5 scored / 9 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Gillingham +1 v Crewe Alexandra 0
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 44%, goals 45%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Accrington Stanley strength rating 1463 v Salford City 1487
• Accrington Stanley home record this season: 3W 3D 0L
• Salford City away form: 4W 1D 2L, 16 scored / 11 conceded
• Accrington Stanley unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 41%, goals 42%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Salford City are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Barnet strength rating 1484 v Port Vale 1429
• Barnet home record this season: 4W 2D 1L
• Port Vale away form: 0W 1D 5L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Barnet +10 v Port Vale -4
• Barnet have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 56%, goals 61%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Port Vale are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Chesterfield strength rating 1449 v Shrewsbury Town 1430
• Chesterfield home record this season: 3W 3D 1L
• Shrewsbury Town away form: 2W 2D 3L, 9 scored / 14 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Chesterfield +3 v Shrewsbury Town -5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. Shrewsbury Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Crawley Town strength rating 1395 v Fleetwood Town 1429
• Crawley Town home record this season: 0W 2D 4L
• Fleetwood Town away form: 1W 2D 4L, 8 scored / 13 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 40%, goals 36%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Grimsby Town strength rating 1456 v Rotherham United 1415
• Grimsby Town home record this season: 4W 1D 2L
• Rotherham United away form: 1W 1D 4L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Grimsby Town +6 v Rotherham United -6
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 54%, goals 60%, recent form 62%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Tranmere Rovers strength rating 1440 v Colchester United 1421
• Tranmere Rovers home record this season: 2W 3D 1L
• Colchester United away form: 0W 3D 4L, 6 scored / 13 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Tranmere Rovers -1 v Colchester United -6
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 48%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Cheltenham Town strength rating 1443 v Bristol Rovers 1422
• Cheltenham Town home record this season: 5W 1D 1L
• Bristol Rovers away form: 1W 0D 5L, 5 scored / 12 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Cheltenham Town +1 v Bristol Rovers -4
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 50%, goals 52%, recent form 65%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• York City strength rating 1448 v Walsall 1464
• York City home record this season: 5W 2D 0L
• Walsall away form: 1W 5D 0L, 8 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 43%, goals 38%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: Walsall are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Walsall have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Oldham Athletic strength rating 1417 v Exeter City 1454
• Oldham Athletic home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
• Exeter City away form: 1W 1D 4L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 35% (Elo 39%, goals 31%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Exeter City are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Exeter City have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Northampton Town strength rating 1437 v Rochdale 1406
• Northampton Town home record this season: 2W 2D 2L
• Rochdale away form: 1W 2D 4L, 7 scored / 13 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Northampton Town -1 v Rochdale -9
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 52%, goals 48%, recent form 51%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.