Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Cheltenham Town win
- 54%
- Draw
- 20%
- Bristol Rovers win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Cheltenham Town to win
Model probability 54%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Cheltenham Town strength rating 1443 v Bristol Rovers 1422
- Cheltenham Town home record this season: 5W 1D 1L
- Bristol Rovers away form: 1W 0D 5L, 5 scored / 12 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Cheltenham Town +1 v Bristol Rovers -4
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 50%, goals 52%, recent form 65%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model65%
Component disagreement: 14.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.