Oldham Athletic v Exeter City
18+EFL League Two · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Oldham Athletic win
- 35%
- Draw
- 30%
- Exeter City win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Oldham Athletic to win
Model probability 35%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Oldham Athletic strength rating 1417 v Exeter City 1454
- Oldham Athletic home record this season: 3W 1D 2L
- Exeter City away form: 1W 1D 4L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 35% (Elo 39%, goals 31%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Exeter City are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Exeter City have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model39%
- Goals model31%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 7.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:13. Read the methodology.