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Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

AS Monaco v RC Lens

Ligue 1 · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
AS Monaco win
55%
Draw
20%
RC Lens win
25%

FootyGrounds prediction

AS Monaco to win

Model probability 55% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • AS Monaco strength rating 1642 v RC Lens 1617
  • Superior goal difference: AS Monaco +4 v RC Lens +1
  • AS Monaco unbeaten in their last 4 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 51%, goals 52%, recent form 70%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Paris FC v RC Strasbourg

Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 15:15

Data: excellent
Paris FC win
49%
Draw
23%
RC Strasbourg win
28%

FootyGrounds prediction

Paris FC to win

Model probability 49% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Paris FC strength rating 1637 v RC Strasbourg 1630
  • Superior goal difference: Paris FC +4 v RC Strasbourg +1
  • Paris FC unbeaten in their last 4 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 53%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: RC Strasbourg are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Olympique Lyonnais v Stade Rennais

Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
Olympique Lyonnais win
44%
Draw
25%
Stade Rennais win
31%

FootyGrounds prediction

Olympique Lyonnais to win

Model probability 44% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Olympique Lyonnais strength rating 1638 v Stade Rennais 1637
  • Superior goal difference: Olympique Lyonnais +4 v Stade Rennais +3
  • Olympique Lyonnais unbeaten in their last 4 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 48%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. Stade Rennais are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Toulouse FC v Le Havre

Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
Toulouse FC win
42%
Draw
26%
Le Havre win
33%

FootyGrounds prediction

Toulouse FC to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Toulouse FC strength rating 1602 v Le Havre 1606
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Angers v Troyes

Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
Angers win
46%
Draw
23%
Troyes win
31%

FootyGrounds prediction

Angers to win

Model probability 46% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Angers strength rating 1613 v Troyes 1603
  • Superior goal difference: Angers -1 v Troyes -5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 48%, goals 52%, recent form 31%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Le Mans v Lorient

Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
Le Mans win
42%
Draw
24%
Lorient win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Le Mans to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Le Mans strength rating 1615 v Lorient 1620
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 45%, goals 43%, recent form 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Lorient are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Auxerre v Brest

Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

Data: excellent
Auxerre win
38%
Draw
25%
Brest win
37%

FootyGrounds prediction

Auxerre to win

Model probability 38% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Auxerre strength rating 1597 v Brest 1620
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 36%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Brest are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
OGC Nice v Lille OSC

Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sept, 15:15

Data: excellent
OGC Nice win
31%
Draw
26%
Lille OSC win
44%

FootyGrounds prediction

Lille OSC to win

Model probability 44% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Lille OSC strength rating 1645 v OGC Nice 1604
  • Superior goal difference: Lille OSC +5 v OGC Nice -4
  • Lille OSC unbeaten in their last 4 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 34%, goals 46%, recent form 62%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 28 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Data: excellent
Olympique de Marseille win
43%
Draw
25%
Paris Saint-Germain win
32%

FootyGrounds prediction

Olympique de Marseille to win

Model probability 43% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Olympique de Marseille strength rating 1612 v Paris Saint-Germain 1620
  • Paris Saint-Germain away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 46%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Paris Saint-Germain are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis