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Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

Troyes v Le Mans

Ligue 1 · Sat 31 Oct, 19:45

Data: good
Troyes win
37%
Draw
25%
Le Mans win
38%

FootyGrounds prediction

Le Mans to win

Model probability 38% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Le Mans strength rating 1598 v Troyes 1574
  • Le Mans away record this season: 0W 2D 2L
  • Troyes home form: 0W 1D 3L, 3 scored / 11 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Le Mans -5 v Troyes -11
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 40%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
RC Strasbourg v Auxerre

Ligue 1 · Sun 1 Nov, 14:00

Data: good
RC Strasbourg win
44%
Draw
24%
Auxerre win
32%

FootyGrounds prediction

RC Strasbourg to win

Model probability 44% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • RC Strasbourg strength rating 1600 v Auxerre 1604
  • RC Strasbourg home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
  • Auxerre away form: 1W 0D 3L, 7 scored / 13 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 45%, goals 48%, recent form 36%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Auxerre are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Paris FC v AS Monaco

Ligue 1 · Sun 1 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
Paris FC win
45%
Draw
25%
AS Monaco win
31%

FootyGrounds prediction

Paris FC to win

Model probability 45% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Paris FC strength rating 1636 v AS Monaco 1641
  • Paris FC home record this season: 3W 1D 0L
  • AS Monaco away form: 2W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 45%, goals 43%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: AS Monaco are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. AS Monaco have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Olympique Lyonnais v Angers

Ligue 1 · Sun 1 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
Olympique Lyonnais win
58%
Draw
19%
Angers win
23%

FootyGrounds prediction

Olympique Lyonnais to win

Model probability 58% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score54 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Olympique Lyonnais strength rating 1641 v Angers 1595
  • Olympique Lyonnais home record this season: 3W 1D 0L
  • Angers away form: 1W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Olympique Lyonnais +6 v Angers -6
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 55%, goals 62%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Olympique de Marseille v Toulouse FC

Ligue 1 · Sun 1 Nov, 19:45

Data: good
Olympique de Marseille win
48%
Draw
23%
Toulouse FC win
29%

FootyGrounds prediction

Olympique de Marseille to win

Model probability 48% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Olympique de Marseille strength rating 1634 v Toulouse FC 1622
  • Olympique de Marseille home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
  • Toulouse FC away form: 1W 3D 0L, 9 scored / 6 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Olympique de Marseille +5 v Toulouse FC +1
  • Olympique de Marseille have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 49%, goals 52%, recent form 41%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Toulouse FC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Lorient v Brest

Ligue 1 · Mon 2 Nov, 19:45

Data: good
Lorient win
47%
Draw
24%
Brest win
30%

FootyGrounds prediction

Lorient to win

Model probability 47% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Lorient strength rating 1626 v Brest 1619
  • Lorient home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
  • Brest away form: 1W 2D 1L, 6 scored / 6 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 48%, goals 43%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Toulouse FC v RC Strasbourg

Ligue 1 · Fri 6 Nov, 19:45

Data: good
Toulouse FC win
54%
Draw
20%
RC Strasbourg win
26%

FootyGrounds prediction

Toulouse FC to win

Model probability 54% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Toulouse FC strength rating 1622 v RC Strasbourg 1600
  • Toulouse FC home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
  • RC Strasbourg away form: 1W 0D 4L, 8 scored / 13 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Toulouse FC +1 v RC Strasbourg -6
  • Toulouse FC unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 50%, goals 57%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Auxerre v Paris FC

Ligue 1 · Sat 7 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
Auxerre win
39%
Draw
25%
Paris FC win
36%

FootyGrounds prediction

Auxerre to win

Model probability 39% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Auxerre strength rating 1604 v Paris FC 1636
  • Auxerre home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
  • Paris FC away form: 1W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
  • Auxerre have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 40%, goals 33%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Paris Saint-Germain v Troyes

Ligue 1 · Sat 7 Nov, 19:45

Data: good
Paris Saint-Germain win
69%
Draw
15%
Troyes win
16%

FootyGrounds prediction

Paris Saint-Germain to win

Model probability 69% · predicted score 3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score61 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Paris Saint-Germain strength rating 1668 v Troyes 1574
  • Paris Saint-Germain home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
  • Troyes away form: 1W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Paris Saint-Germain +11 v Troyes -11
  • Paris Saint-Germain unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 69% (Elo 62%, goals 75%, recent form 74%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Stade Rennais v Lille OSC

Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00

Data: good
Stade Rennais win
41%
Draw
25%
Lille OSC win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Stade Rennais to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Stade Rennais strength rating 1628 v Lille OSC 1649
  • Stade Rennais home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
  • Lille OSC away form: 2W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 3 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 42%, goals 37%, recent form 43%)

Main uncertainty: Lille OSC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Lille OSC have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Le Havre v Lorient

Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
Le Havre win
30%
Draw
26%
Lorient win
44%

FootyGrounds prediction

Lorient to win

Model probability 44% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score25 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Lorient strength rating 1626 v Le Havre 1567
  • Lorient away record this season: 1W 2D 1L
  • Le Havre home form: 0W 1D 4L, 3 scored / 11 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Lorient +1 v Le Havre -11
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 36%, goals 43%, recent form 63%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Brest v Olympique Lyonnais

Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
Brest win
40%
Draw
26%
Olympique Lyonnais win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Brest to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Brest strength rating 1619 v Olympique Lyonnais 1641
  • Brest home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
  • Olympique Lyonnais away form: 1W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 4 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 42%, goals 39%, recent form 36%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Le Mans v AS Monaco

Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
Le Mans win
35%
Draw
27%
AS Monaco win
38%

FootyGrounds prediction

AS Monaco to win

Model probability 38% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • AS Monaco strength rating 1641 v Le Mans 1598
  • AS Monaco away record this season: 2W 1D 1L
  • Le Mans home form: 1W 2D 1L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: AS Monaco +4 v Le Mans -5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 34%, goals 42%, recent form 39%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Angers v OGC Nice

Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
Angers win
37%
Draw
26%
OGC Nice win
37%

FootyGrounds prediction

OGC Nice to win

Model probability 37% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • OGC Nice strength rating 1629 v Angers 1595
  • OGC Nice away record this season: 1W 0D 3L
  • Angers home form: 1W 1D 3L, 5 scored / 9 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: OGC Nice +1 v Angers -6
  • OGC Nice have won 4 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 33%, goals 39%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
RC Lens v Olympique de Marseille

Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 19:45

Data: good
RC Lens win
46%
Draw
23%
Olympique de Marseille win
31%

FootyGrounds prediction

RC Lens to win

Model probability 46% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • RC Lens strength rating 1629 v Olympique de Marseille 1634
  • RC Lens home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
  • Olympique de Marseille away form: 2W 0D 2L, 7 scored / 5 conceded
  • RC Lens have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 45%, recent form 48%)

Main uncertainty: Olympique de Marseille are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Troyes v Le Havre

Ligue 1 · Fri 20 Nov, 19:45

Data: good
Troyes win
47%
Draw
23%
Le Havre win
30%

FootyGrounds prediction

Troyes to win

Model probability 47% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Troyes strength rating 1574 v Le Havre 1567
  • Troyes home record this season: 0W 1D 3L
  • Le Havre away form: 0W 1D 3L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 43%, recent form 53%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
OGC Nice v Paris Saint-Germain

Ligue 1 · Sat 21 Nov, 16:15

Data: good
OGC Nice win
36%
Draw
26%
Paris Saint-Germain win
38%

FootyGrounds prediction

Paris Saint-Germain to win

Model probability 38% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Paris Saint-Germain strength rating 1668 v OGC Nice 1629
  • Paris Saint-Germain away record this season: 4W 2D 0L
  • OGC Nice home form: 3W 2D 0L, 10 scored / 5 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Paris Saint-Germain +11 v OGC Nice +1
  • Paris Saint-Germain unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 34%, goals 42%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: OGC Nice are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis