FootyGrounds — football is more than 90 minutes
Current language: English
Sign in

Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

Monza v Sassuolo

Serie A · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
Monza win
36%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo win
41%

FootyGrounds prediction

Sassuolo to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score26 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Sassuolo strength rating 1625 v Monza 1598
  • Superior goal difference: Sassuolo +1 v Monza -5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 33%, goals 41%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Bologna v Torino

Serie A · Sat 19 Sept, 13:00

Data: excellent
Bologna win
42%
Draw
24%
Torino win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Bologna to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Bologna strength rating 1603 v Torino 1604
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 46%, goals 43%, recent form 30%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Udinese v Cagliari

Serie A · Sat 19 Sept, 13:00

Data: excellent
Udinese win
37%
Draw
23%
Cagliari win
39%

FootyGrounds prediction

Cagliari to win

Model probability 39% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score24 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Cagliari strength rating 1632 v Udinese 1612
  • Superior goal difference: Cagliari +2 v Udinese -2
  • Cagliari have won 3 of their last 4
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 32%, goals 37%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
AS Roma v Inter Milan

Serie A · Sat 19 Sept, 16:00

Data: excellent
AS Roma win
50%
Draw
22%
Inter Milan win
28%

FootyGrounds prediction

AS Roma to win

Model probability 50% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • AS Roma strength rating 1663 v Inter Milan 1650
  • Superior goal difference: AS Roma +11 v Inter Milan +7
  • AS Roma unbeaten in their last 4 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 58%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Venezia v Lazio

Serie A · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
Venezia win
28%
Draw
24%
Lazio win
48%

FootyGrounds prediction

Lazio to win

Model probability 48% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Lazio strength rating 1639 v Venezia 1585
  • Superior goal difference: Lazio +3 v Venezia -7
  • Lazio unbeaten in their last 4 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 35%, goals 48%, recent form 79%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 44 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Fiorentina v Napoli

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 10:30

Data: excellent
Fiorentina win
36%
Draw
24%
Napoli win
41%

FootyGrounds prediction

Napoli to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Napoli strength rating 1624 v Fiorentina 1599
  • Superior goal difference: Napoli +1 v Fiorentina -6
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 33%, goals 43%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Parma v Genoa

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

Data: excellent
Parma win
51%
Draw
22%
Genoa win
27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Parma to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Parma strength rating 1601 v Genoa 1591
  • Superior goal difference: Parma -4 v Genoa -6
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 63%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Frosinone v Como

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

Data: excellent
Frosinone win
41%
Draw
25%
Como win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Frosinone to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Frosinone strength rating 1632 v Como 1645
  • Como away form: 2W 1D 0L, 7 scored / 3 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 42%, recent form 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Como are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Juventus v Atalanta

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 16:00

Data: excellent
Juventus win
51%
Draw
22%
Atalanta win
27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Juventus to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Juventus strength rating 1629 v Atalanta 1618
  • Superior goal difference: Juventus +2 v Atalanta 0
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 49%, recent form 61%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
AC Milan v Lecce

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
AC Milan win
53%
Draw
21%
Lecce win
26%

FootyGrounds prediction

AC Milan to win

Model probability 53% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score55 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • AC Milan strength rating 1635 v Lecce 1615
  • Superior goal difference: AC Milan +3 v Lecce -2
  • AC Milan unbeaten in their last 4 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis