Lazio v Cagliari
18+Serie A · Sun 1 Nov, 14:00
Data: good
- Lazio win
- 63%
- Draw
- 18%
- Cagliari win
- 20%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lazio to win
Model probability 63%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lazio strength rating 1687 v Cagliari 1607
- Lazio home record this season: 3W 1D 0L
- Cagliari away form: 3W 0D 2L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Lazio +15 v Cagliari -5
- Lazio unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 63% (Elo 60%, goals 70%, recent form 56%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model60%
- Goals model70%
- Recent-form model56%
Component disagreement: 14.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 63% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 63%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.