Napoli v Lazio
18+Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 11:30
Data: good
- Napoli win
- 35%
- Draw
- 26%
- Lazio win
- 39%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lazio to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lazio strength rating 1687 v Napoli 1642
- Lazio away record this season: 5W 0D 0L
- Napoli home form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Lazio +15 v Napoli +6
- Lazio unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 34%, goals 42%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Napoli are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 10.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.