Match predictor

• Brentford strength rating 1630 v Chelsea 1627
• Superior goal difference: Brentford +3 v Chelsea +1
• Brentford unbeaten in their last 4 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 47%, goals 52%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Tottenham Hotspur strength rating 1599 v Aston Villa 1595
• Superior goal difference: Tottenham Hotspur -5 v Aston Villa -6
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 42%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Brighton & Hove Albion strength rating 1644 v Arsenal 1657
• Superior goal difference: Brighton & Hove Albion +8 v Arsenal +7
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 44%, recent form 31%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Newcastle United strength rating 1616 v Hull City 1635
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 37%, recent form 30%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Hull City are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Everton strength rating 1628 v Ipswich Town 1610
• Superior goal difference: Everton +2 v Ipswich Town -3
• Everton unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 56%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Nottingham Forest strength rating 1620 v Coventry City 1582
• Superior goal difference: Nottingham Forest 0 v Coventry City -10
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 53%, goals 63%, recent form 81%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 28 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Leeds United strength rating 1637 v Crystal Palace 1589
• Crystal Palace away form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Leeds United +4 v Crystal Palace -5
• Leeds United unbeaten in their last 4 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 55%, goals 64%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Manchester City strength rating 1650 v Sunderland 1609
• Manchester City home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
• Superior goal difference: Manchester City +6 v Sunderland -2
• Manchester City unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 54%, goals 59%, recent form 68%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• AFC Bournemouth strength rating 1615 v Liverpool 1641
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 39%, recent form 29%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Fulham strength rating 1601 v Manchester United 1616
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 43%, goals 40%, recent form 30%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.