Liverpool v Arsenal
18+Premier League · Sun 1 Nov, 16:30
Data: good
- Liverpool win
- 39%
- Draw
- 27%
- Arsenal win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Liverpool to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Liverpool strength rating 1650 v Arsenal 1665
- Liverpool home record this season: 2W 2D 1L
- Arsenal away form: 3W 0D 1L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
- Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 43%, goals 35%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Arsenal have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model35%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 9.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.