Fulham v Newcastle United
18+Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00
Data: good
- Fulham win
- 44%
- Draw
- 25%
- Newcastle United win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Fulham to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Fulham strength rating 1608 v Newcastle United 1613
- Fulham home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
- Newcastle United away form: 2W 0D 3L, 7 scored / 10 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 45%, goals 44%, recent form 42%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model42%
Component disagreement: 2.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.