Aston Villa v Sunderland
18+Premier League · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: good
- Aston Villa win
- 56%
- Draw
- 20%
- Sunderland win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Aston Villa to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Aston Villa strength rating 1615 v Sunderland 1585
- Aston Villa home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
- Sunderland away form: 0W 1D 3L, 5 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Aston Villa -3 v Sunderland -9
- Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 52%, goals 53%, recent form 73%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model73%
Component disagreement: 20.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.