Manchester United v Aston Villa
18+Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 16:30
Data: good
- Manchester United win
- 39%
- Draw
- 25%
- Aston Villa win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Manchester United to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Manchester United strength rating 1594 v Aston Villa 1615
- Manchester United home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
- Aston Villa away form: 2W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 42%, goals 42%, recent form 28%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model28%
Component disagreement: 14.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.