Manchester City v Fulham
18+Premier League · Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Data: good
- Manchester City win
- 59%
- Draw
- 19%
- Fulham win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Manchester City to win
Model probability 59%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score58 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Manchester City strength rating 1668 v Fulham 1608
- Manchester City home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
- Fulham away form: 1W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Manchester City +10 v Fulham -2
- Manchester City have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 57%, goals 62%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Fulham are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Fulham have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model57%
- Goals model62%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 4.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 60% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 59%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.