Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

New York City FC v New York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer · Fri 18 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

New York City FC win: 52%
Draw: 22%
New York Red Bulls win: 26%

FootyGrounds prediction

New York City FC to win

Model probability 52% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

New York City FC strength rating 1620 v New York Red Bulls 1620
Superior goal difference: New York City FC +6 v New York Red Bulls -15
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 46%, goals 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

D.C. United v Charlotte FC

Major League Soccer · Sat 19 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

D.C. United win: 41%
Draw: 24%
Charlotte FC win: 35%

FootyGrounds prediction

D.C. United to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

D.C. United strength rating 1620 v Charlotte FC 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 46%, goals 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

CF Montréal v Columbus Crew

Major League Soccer · Sat 19 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

CF Montréal win: 43%
Draw: 23%
Columbus Crew win: 34%

FootyGrounds prediction

CF Montréal to win

Model probability 43% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

CF Montréal strength rating 1620 v Columbus Crew 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 46%, goals 38%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles FC

Major League Soccer · Sat 19 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

San Jose Earthquakes win: 45%
Draw: 24%
Los Angeles FC win: 32%

FootyGrounds prediction

San Jose Earthquakes to win

Model probability 45% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

San Jose Earthquakes strength rating 1620 v Los Angeles FC 1608
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 48%, goals 40%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

New England Revolution v Orlando City SC

Major League Soccer · Sat 19 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

New England Revolution win: 53%
Draw: 21%
Orlando City SC win: 25%

FootyGrounds prediction

New England Revolution to win

Model probability 53% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

New England Revolution strength rating 1620 v Orlando City SC 1620
Superior goal difference: New England Revolution +10 v Orlando City SC -12
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 46%, goals 62%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

FC Dallas v Austin FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

FC Dallas win: 52%
Draw: 22%
Austin FC win: 26%

FootyGrounds prediction

FC Dallas to win

Model probability 52% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

FC Dallas strength rating 1620 v Austin FC 1620
Superior goal difference: FC Dallas +7 v Austin FC -12
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 46%, goals 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Minnesota United FC v LA Galaxy

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

Minnesota United FC win: 47%
Draw: 24%
LA Galaxy win: 29%

FootyGrounds prediction

Minnesota United FC to win

Model probability 47% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Minnesota United FC strength rating 1620 v LA Galaxy 1620
Superior goal difference: Minnesota United FC -6 v LA Galaxy -9
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 46%, goals 48%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Houston Dynamo FC v FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

Houston Dynamo FC win: 50%
Draw: 22%
FC Cincinnati win: 28%

FootyGrounds prediction

Houston Dynamo FC to win

Model probability 50% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Houston Dynamo FC strength rating 1620 v FC Cincinnati 1620
Superior goal difference: Houston Dynamo FC +4 v FC Cincinnati -7
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 46%, goals 55%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

Sporting Kansas City win: 36%
Draw: 22%
Philadelphia Union win: 42%

FootyGrounds prediction

Philadelphia Union to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score21 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Philadelphia Union strength rating 1620 v Sporting Kansas City 1620
Superior goal difference: Philadelphia Union +7 v Sporting Kansas City -33
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 30%, goals 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

St. Louis City SC v Toronto FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

St. Louis City SC win: 51%
Draw: 22%
Toronto FC win: 27%

FootyGrounds prediction

St. Louis City SC to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

St. Louis City SC strength rating 1620 v Toronto FC 1620
Superior goal difference: St. Louis City SC +7 v Toronto FC -8
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 46%, goals 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Real Salt Lake v Vancouver Whitecaps FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 01:30

Data: good

Real Salt Lake win: 37%
Draw: 23%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC win: 40%

FootyGrounds prediction

Vancouver Whitecaps FC to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score21 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Vancouver Whitecaps FC strength rating 1620 v Real Salt Lake 1620
Superior goal difference: Vancouver Whitecaps FC +30 v Real Salt Lake -2
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 30%, goals 52%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Nashville SC v Chicago Fire FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 01:30

Data: good

Nashville SC win: 52%
Draw: 22%
Chicago Fire FC win: 25%

FootyGrounds prediction

Nashville SC to win

Model probability 52% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Nashville SC strength rating 1620 v Chicago Fire FC 1620
Superior goal difference: Nashville SC +29 v Chicago Fire FC +10
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 46%, goals 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Colorado Rapids v Seattle Sounders FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 01:30

Data: good

Colorado Rapids win: 46%
Draw: 25%
Seattle Sounders FC win: 28%

FootyGrounds prediction

Colorado Rapids to win

Model probability 46% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Colorado Rapids strength rating 1620 v Seattle Sounders FC 1620
Superior goal difference: Colorado Rapids +1 v Seattle Sounders FC -5
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 46%, goals 47%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Portland Timbers v Atlanta United FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 02:30

Data: good

Portland Timbers win: 51%
Draw: 22%
Atlanta United FC win: 27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Portland Timbers to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Portland Timbers strength rating 1620 v Atlanta United FC 1620
Superior goal difference: Portland Timbers 0 v Atlanta United FC -14
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 46%, goals 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 23:00

Data: good

Inter Miami CF win: 52%
Draw: 21%
San Diego FC win: 27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Inter Miami CF to win

Model probability 52% · predicted score 3–2 (range 2–1 to 4–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Inter Miami CF strength rating 1620 v San Diego FC 1620
Superior goal difference: Inter Miami CF +15 v San Diego FC 0
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 46%, goals 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake

Major League Soccer · Thu 24 Sept, 01:30

Data: good

Seattle Sounders FC win: 44%
Draw: 25%
Real Salt Lake win: 31%

FootyGrounds prediction

Seattle Sounders FC to win

Model probability 44% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Seattle Sounders FC strength rating 1620 v Real Salt Lake 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 42%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Atlanta United FC v New York City FC

Major League Soccer · Sat 26 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

Atlanta United FC win: 40%
Draw: 24%
New York City FC win: 36%

FootyGrounds prediction

Atlanta United FC to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Atlanta United FC strength rating 1620 v New York City FC 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 46%, goals 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

CF Montréal v FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer · Sat 26 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

CF Montréal win: 43%
Draw: 22%
FC Cincinnati win: 35%

FootyGrounds prediction

CF Montréal to win

Model probability 43% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

CF Montréal strength rating 1620 v FC Cincinnati 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 46%, goals 39%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC

Major League Soccer · Sat 26 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

New York Red Bulls win: 40%
Draw: 23%
St. Louis City SC win: 37%

FootyGrounds prediction

New York Red Bulls to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

New York Red Bulls strength rating 1620 v St. Louis City SC 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 46%, goals 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire FC

Major League Soccer · Sat 26 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

Charlotte FC win: 46%
Draw: 23%
Chicago Fire FC win: 31%

FootyGrounds prediction

Charlotte FC to win

Model probability 46% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Charlotte FC strength rating 1620 v Chicago Fire FC 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 46%, goals 46%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC

Major League Soccer · Sat 26 Sept, 23:30

Data: good

Philadelphia Union win: 53%
Draw: 21%
Orlando City SC win: 26%

FootyGrounds prediction

Philadelphia Union to win

Model probability 53% · predicted score 3–2 (range 2–1 to 4–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Philadelphia Union strength rating 1620 v Orlando City SC 1620
Superior goal difference: Philadelphia Union +7 v Orlando City SC -12
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 46%, goals 62%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Nashville SC v Toronto FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

Nashville SC win: 57%
Draw: 21%
Toronto FC win: 22%

FootyGrounds prediction

Nashville SC to win

Model probability 57% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Nashville SC strength rating 1620 v Toronto FC 1620
Superior goal difference: Nashville SC +29 v Toronto FC -8
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 46%, goals 71%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Houston Dynamo FC v Sporting Kansas City

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

Houston Dynamo FC win: 56%
Draw: 21%
Sporting Kansas City win: 23%

FootyGrounds prediction

Houston Dynamo FC to win

Model probability 56% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Houston Dynamo FC strength rating 1620 v Sporting Kansas City 1620
Superior goal difference: Houston Dynamo FC +4 v Sporting Kansas City -33
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 46%, goals 68%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Austin FC v San Diego FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

Austin FC win: 43%
Draw: 23%
San Diego FC win: 34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Austin FC to win

Model probability 43% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Austin FC strength rating 1620 v San Diego FC 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 46%, goals 38%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

Seattle Sounders FC win: 45%
Draw: 24%
Minnesota United FC win: 30%

FootyGrounds prediction

Seattle Sounders FC to win

Model probability 45% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Seattle Sounders FC strength rating 1620 v Minnesota United FC 1620
Superior goal difference: Seattle Sounders FC -5 v Minnesota United FC -6
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 44%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

FC Dallas v Los Angeles FC

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 00:30

Data: good

FC Dallas win: 45%
Draw: 23%
Los Angeles FC win: 32%

FootyGrounds prediction

FC Dallas to win

Model probability 45% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

FC Dallas strength rating 1620 v Los Angeles FC 1608
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 48%, goals 40%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Real Salt Lake v New England Revolution

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 01:30

Data: good

Real Salt Lake win: 42%
Draw: 24%
New England Revolution win: 34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Real Salt Lake to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Real Salt Lake strength rating 1620 v New England Revolution 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 46%, goals 37%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

LA Galaxy v Colorado Rapids

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 02:30

Data: good

LA Galaxy win: 42%
Draw: 25%
Colorado Rapids win: 33%

FootyGrounds prediction

LA Galaxy to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

LA Galaxy strength rating 1620 v Colorado Rapids 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 46%, goals 37%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 02:30

Data: good

San Jose Earthquakes win: 50%
Draw: 22%
Portland Timbers win: 28%

FootyGrounds prediction

San Jose Earthquakes to win

Model probability 50% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

San Jose Earthquakes strength rating 1620 v Portland Timbers 1620
Superior goal difference: San Jose Earthquakes +8 v Portland Timbers 0
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 46%, goals 54%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Vancouver Whitecaps FC v D.C. United

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 02:30

Data: good

Vancouver Whitecaps FC win: 57%
Draw: 21%
D.C. United win: 23%

FootyGrounds prediction

Vancouver Whitecaps FC to win

Model probability 57% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Vancouver Whitecaps FC strength rating 1620 v D.C. United 1620
Superior goal difference: Vancouver Whitecaps FC +30 v D.C. United -7
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 46%, goals 70%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Columbus Crew v Inter Miami CF

Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 23:00

Data: good

Columbus Crew win: 41%
Draw: 22%
Inter Miami CF win: 37%

FootyGrounds prediction

Columbus Crew to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Columbus Crew strength rating 1620 v Inter Miami CF 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 46%, goals 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Seattle Sounders FC v Sporting Kansas City

Major League Soccer · Fri 2 Oct, 01:30

Data: good

Seattle Sounders FC win: 53%
Draw: 23%
Sporting Kansas City win: 25%

FootyGrounds prediction

Seattle Sounders FC to win

Model probability 53% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Seattle Sounders FC strength rating 1620 v Sporting Kansas City 1620
Superior goal difference: Seattle Sounders FC -5 v Sporting Kansas City -33
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 46%, goals 61%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Chicago Fire FC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC

Major League Soccer · Wed 7 Oct, 00:30

Data: good

Chicago Fire FC win: 40%
Draw: 23%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC win: 37%

FootyGrounds prediction

Chicago Fire FC to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Chicago Fire FC strength rating 1620 v Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1620
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 46%, goals 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis