San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake
18+Major League Soccer · Sat 31 Oct, 21:00
Data: good
- San Jose Earthquakes win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- Real Salt Lake win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
San Jose Earthquakes to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- San Jose Earthquakes strength rating 1620 v Real Salt Lake 1620
- Superior goal difference: San Jose Earthquakes +10 v Real Salt Lake -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 46%, goals 56%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model56%
Component disagreement: 9.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:04), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:11. Read the methodology.