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Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

Bayern Munich v Union Berlin

Bundesliga · Fri 18 Sept, 18:30

Data: good
Bayern Munich win
65%
Draw
16%
Union Berlin win
19%

FootyGrounds prediction

Bayern Munich to win

Model probability 65% · predicted score 3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Bayern Munich strength rating 1639 v Union Berlin 1597
  • Superior goal difference: Bayern Munich +5 v Union Berlin -6
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 54%, goals 68%, recent form 84%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 30 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

Data: good
Hamburger SV win
34%
Draw
23%
1. FC Köln win
43%

FootyGrounds prediction

1. FC Köln to win

Model probability 43% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score26 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • 1. FC Köln strength rating 1614 v Hamburger SV 1582
  • Superior goal difference: 1. FC Köln -2 v Hamburger SV -12
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 33%, goals 49%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Mainz 05

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

Data: good
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
30%
Draw
22%
Mainz 05 win
48%

FootyGrounds prediction

Mainz 05 to win

Model probability 48% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Mainz 05 strength rating 1626 v Borussia Mönchengladbach 1591
  • Superior goal difference: Mainz 05 +3 v Borussia Mönchengladbach -9
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 33%, goals 52%, recent form 75%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 41 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

Data: good
Eintracht Frankfurt win
33%
Draw
22%
SC Freiburg win
45%

FootyGrounds prediction

SC Freiburg to win

Model probability 45% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score25 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • SC Freiburg strength rating 1649 v Eintracht Frankfurt 1618
  • Superior goal difference: SC Freiburg +9 v Eintracht Frankfurt -1
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 33%, goals 49%, recent form 64%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 31 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

Data: good
Werder Bremen win
38%
Draw
25%
FC Augsburg win
37%

FootyGrounds prediction

Werder Bremen to win

Model probability 38% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Werder Bremen strength rating 1619 v FC Augsburg 1644
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 36%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: FC Augsburg are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept, 16:30

Data: good
VfB Stuttgart win
36%
Draw
24%
Borussia Dortmund win
40%

FootyGrounds prediction

Borussia Dortmund to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Borussia Dortmund strength rating 1644 v VfB Stuttgart 1614
  • Superior goal difference: Borussia Dortmund +6 v VfB Stuttgart -2
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 33%, goals 45%, recent form 45%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig

Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept, 13:30

Data: good
Bayer Leverkusen win
47%
Draw
22%
RB Leipzig win
32%

FootyGrounds prediction

Bayer Leverkusen to win

Model probability 47% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Bayer Leverkusen strength rating 1627 v RB Leipzig 1633
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 45%, goals 43%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Schalke 04 v Elversberg

Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept, 15:30

Data: good
Schalke 04 win
42%
Draw
22%
Elversberg win
36%

FootyGrounds prediction

Schalke 04 to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Schalke 04 strength rating 1621 v Elversberg 1625
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 45%, goals 45%, recent form 29%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim

Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept, 17:30

Data: good
Paderborn win
41%
Draw
25%
TSG Hoffenheim win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Paderborn to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Paderborn strength rating 1604 v TSG Hoffenheim 1613
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 40%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis