Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund
18+Bundesliga · Sat 31 Oct, 17:30
Data: good
- Bayern Munich win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- Borussia Dortmund win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bayern Munich to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bayern Munich strength rating 1675 v Borussia Dortmund 1655
- Bayern Munich home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Borussia Dortmund away form: 2W 1D 0L, 4 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bayern Munich +19 v Borussia Dortmund +8
- Bayern Munich unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 57%, recent form 43%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Borussia Dortmund have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model57%
- Recent-form model43%
Component disagreement: 14.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.