Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln
18+Bundesliga · Sun 1 Nov, 14:30
Data: good
- Union Berlin win
- 43%
- Draw
- 23%
- 1. FC Köln win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Union Berlin to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score24 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Union Berlin strength rating 1590 v 1. FC Köln 1608
- Union Berlin home record this season: 1W 2D 1L
- 1. FC Köln away form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 43%, goals 34%, recent form 61%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model34%
- Recent-form model61%
Component disagreement: 26.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.