1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen
18+Bundesliga · Sun 8 Nov, 14:30
Data: good
- 1. FC Köln win
- 38%
- Draw
- 26%
- Bayer Leverkusen win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
1. FC Köln to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- 1. FC Köln strength rating 1608 v Bayer Leverkusen 1636
- 1. FC Köln home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Bayer Leverkusen away form: 1W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 11 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 37%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 4.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.