SC Freiburg v Union Berlin
18+Bundesliga · Sun 8 Nov, 16:30
Data: good
- SC Freiburg win
- 64%
- Draw
- 17%
- Union Berlin win
- 20%
FootyGrounds prediction
SC Freiburg to win
Model probability 64%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- SC Freiburg strength rating 1637 v Union Berlin 1590
- SC Freiburg home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Union Berlin away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 12 conceded
- Superior goal difference: SC Freiburg +7 v Union Berlin -12
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 64% (Elo 55%, goals 73%, recent form 68%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. Union Berlin are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model55%
- Goals model73%
- Recent-form model68%
Component disagreement: 17.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 64% (calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09), now 64%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 18:20:08. Read the methodology.