Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund
18+Bundesliga · Sat 21 Nov, 14:30
Data: good
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win
- 26%
- Draw
- 23%
- Borussia Dortmund win
- 51%
FootyGrounds prediction
Borussia Dortmund to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Borussia Dortmund strength rating 1655 v Borussia Mönchengladbach 1581
- Borussia Dortmund away record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Borussia Mönchengladbach home form: 0W 0D 3L, 7 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Borussia Dortmund +8 v Borussia Mönchengladbach -11
- Borussia Dortmund unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 39%, goals 56%, recent form 69%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 30 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model39%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model69%
Component disagreement: 29.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.