Bayern Munich v 1. FC Köln
18+Bundesliga · Fri 20 Nov, 19:30
Data: good
- Bayern Munich win
- 68%
- Draw
- 15%
- 1. FC Köln win
- 17%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bayern Munich to win
Model probability 68%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score54 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bayern Munich strength rating 1675 v 1. FC Köln 1608
- Bayern Munich home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- 1. FC Köln away form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bayern Munich +19 v 1. FC Köln -3
- Bayern Munich unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 68% (Elo 58%, goals 75%, recent form 76%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model58%
- Goals model75%
- Recent-form model76%
Component disagreement: 18.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 68% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 68%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.