Bayer Leverkusen v Paderborn
18+Bundesliga · Sat 21 Nov, 14:30
Data: good
- Bayer Leverkusen win
- 55%
- Draw
- 20%
- Paderborn win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bayer Leverkusen strength rating 1636 v Paderborn 1606
- Bayer Leverkusen home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Paderborn away form: 0W 2D 1L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bayer Leverkusen +4 v Paderborn -3
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 52%, goals 54%, recent form 65%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Paderborn are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model54%
- Recent-form model65%
Component disagreement: 13.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.