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Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

Heerenveen v NEC

Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct, 17:45

Data: excellent
Heerenveen win
51%
Draw
22%
NEC win
28%

FootyGrounds prediction

Heerenveen to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Heerenveen strength rating 1635 v NEC 1614
  • Heerenveen home record this season: 2W 1D 2L
  • NEC away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 6 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Heerenveen +5 v NEC -1
  • Heerenveen have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 54%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: NEC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
PSV Eindhoven v Willem II

Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct, 17:45

Data: excellent
PSV Eindhoven win
76%
Draw
11%
Willem II win
12%

FootyGrounds prediction

PSV Eindhoven to win

Model probability 76% · predicted score 4–1 (range 3–0 to 5–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score69 / 100 · Moderate
Why?
  • PSV Eindhoven strength rating 1670 v Willem II 1538
  • PSV Eindhoven home record this season: 3W 2D 0L
  • Willem II away form: 0W 1D 4L, 6 scored / 16 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: PSV Eindhoven +15 v Willem II -22
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 76% (Elo 68%, goals 85%, recent form 80%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles

Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

Data: excellent
Cambuur win
47%
Draw
22%
Go Ahead Eagles win
32%

FootyGrounds prediction

Cambuur to win

Model probability 47% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Cambuur strength rating 1606 v Go Ahead Eagles 1620
  • Cambuur home record this season: 1W 1D 3L
  • Go Ahead Eagles away form: 0W 3D 2L, 9 scored / 15 conceded
  • Cambuur unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 44%, goals 47%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Go Ahead Eagles are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Ajax v AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

Data: excellent
Ajax win
51%
Draw
21%
AZ Alkmaar win
28%

FootyGrounds prediction

Ajax to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Ajax strength rating 1681 v AZ Alkmaar 1653
  • Ajax home record this season: 1W 3D 1L
  • AZ Alkmaar away form: 3W 1D 1L, 11 scored / 7 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Ajax +16 v AZ Alkmaar +8
  • Ajax unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 51%, goals 55%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag

Eredivisie · Sun 1 Nov, 11:15

Data: excellent
PEC Zwolle win
46%
Draw
23%
ADO Den Haag win
31%

FootyGrounds prediction

PEC Zwolle to win

Model probability 46% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • PEC Zwolle strength rating 1580 v ADO Den Haag 1578
  • PEC Zwolle home record this season: 1W 0D 4L
  • ADO Den Haag away form: 0W 2D 3L, 5 scored / 11 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 46%, goals 45%, recent form 48%)

Main uncertainty: ADO Den Haag are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Excelsior v FC Twente

Eredivisie · Sun 1 Nov, 13:30

Data: excellent
Excelsior win
33%
Draw
25%
FC Twente win
42%

FootyGrounds prediction

FC Twente to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • FC Twente strength rating 1656 v Excelsior 1605
  • FC Twente away record this season: 2W 2D 1L
  • Excelsior home form: 1W 0D 3L, 5 scored / 10 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: FC Twente +9 v Excelsior -3
  • FC Twente have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 44%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Telstar v FC Utrecht

Eredivisie · Sun 1 Nov, 13:30

Data: excellent
Telstar win
41%
Draw
22%
FC Utrecht win
37%

FootyGrounds prediction

Telstar to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Telstar strength rating 1581 v FC Utrecht 1598
  • Telstar home record this season: 0W 2D 3L
  • FC Utrecht away form: 2W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 12 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Telstar -9 v FC Utrecht -10
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 48%, recent form 24%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. FC Utrecht are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam

Eredivisie · Sun 1 Nov, 15:45

Data: excellent
Groningen win
56%
Draw
19%
Sparta Rotterdam win
25%

FootyGrounds prediction

Groningen to win

Model probability 56% · predicted score 3–2 (range 2–1 to 4–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score57 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Groningen strength rating 1631 v Sparta Rotterdam 1593
  • Groningen home record this season: 2W 1D 2L
  • Sparta Rotterdam away form: 1W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 10 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Groningen +3 v Sparta Rotterdam -7
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 53%, goals 61%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Willem II v PEC Zwolle

Eredivisie · Fri 6 Nov, 19:00

Data: excellent
Willem II win
36%
Draw
25%
PEC Zwolle win
39%

FootyGrounds prediction

PEC Zwolle to win

Model probability 39% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • PEC Zwolle strength rating 1580 v Willem II 1538
  • PEC Zwolle away record this season: 1W 2D 2L
  • Willem II home form: 0W 1D 4L, 4 scored / 16 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: PEC Zwolle -12 v Willem II -22
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 34%, goals 40%, recent form 50%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Fortuna Sittard v Telstar

Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 15:30

Data: excellent
Fortuna Sittard win
58%
Draw
19%
Telstar win
24%

FootyGrounds prediction

Fortuna Sittard to win

Model probability 58% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score55 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Fortuna Sittard strength rating 1626 v Telstar 1581
  • Fortuna Sittard home record this season: 2W 1D 2L
  • Telstar away form: 1W 1D 3L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Fortuna Sittard 0 v Telstar -9
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 54%, goals 57%, recent form 67%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam

Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 17:45

Data: excellent
ADO Den Haag win
43%
Draw
24%
Sparta Rotterdam win
33%

FootyGrounds prediction

ADO Den Haag to win

Model probability 43% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • ADO Den Haag strength rating 1578 v Sparta Rotterdam 1593
  • ADO Den Haag home record this season: 1W 1D 3L
  • Sparta Rotterdam away form: 1W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 10 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 43%, goals 44%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles

Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 20:00

Data: excellent
Excelsior win
42%
Draw
24%
Go Ahead Eagles win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Excelsior to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Excelsior strength rating 1605 v Go Ahead Eagles 1620
  • Excelsior home record this season: 1W 0D 3L
  • Go Ahead Eagles away form: 0W 3D 2L, 9 scored / 15 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 43%, goals 46%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Go Ahead Eagles are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Heerenveen v Feyenoord

Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 11:15

Data: excellent
Heerenveen win
33%
Draw
26%
Feyenoord win
41%

FootyGrounds prediction

Feyenoord to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Feyenoord strength rating 1693 v Heerenveen 1635
  • Feyenoord away record this season: 5W 1D 0L
  • Heerenveen home form: 2W 1D 2L, 7 scored / 5 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Feyenoord +21 v Heerenveen +5
  • Feyenoord unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 36%, goals 46%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Heerenveen are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
FC Twente v Ajax

Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 13:30

Data: excellent
FC Twente win
40%
Draw
26%
Ajax win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

FC Twente to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • FC Twente strength rating 1656 v Ajax 1681
  • FC Twente home record this season: 4W 0D 1L
  • Ajax away form: 5W 0D 0L, 18 scored / 4 conceded
  • FC Twente have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 41%, goals 42%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Ajax are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Ajax have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
AZ Alkmaar v Groningen

Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 15:45

Data: excellent
AZ Alkmaar win
51%
Draw
21%
Groningen win
28%

FootyGrounds prediction

AZ Alkmaar to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • AZ Alkmaar strength rating 1653 v Groningen 1631
  • AZ Alkmaar home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
  • Groningen away form: 2W 2D 1L, 13 scored / 10 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: AZ Alkmaar +8 v Groningen +3
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Groningen are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven

Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 15:45

Data: excellent
Cambuur win
33%
Draw
26%
PSV Eindhoven win
41%

FootyGrounds prediction

PSV Eindhoven to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • PSV Eindhoven strength rating 1670 v Cambuur 1606
  • PSV Eindhoven away record this season: 3W 0D 2L
  • Cambuur home form: 1W 1D 3L, 8 scored / 15 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: PSV Eindhoven +15 v Cambuur -3
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 37%, goals 51%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. Cambuur are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
FC Utrecht v NEC

Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 19:00

Data: excellent
FC Utrecht win
42%
Draw
23%
NEC win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

FC Utrecht to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • FC Utrecht strength rating 1598 v NEC 1614
  • FC Utrecht home record this season: 1W 2D 2L
  • NEC away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 6 conceded
  • FC Utrecht have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 43%, goals 39%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: NEC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
NEC v PSV Eindhoven

Eredivisie · Sat 21 Nov, 15:30

Data: excellent
NEC win
33%
Draw
25%
PSV Eindhoven win
42%

FootyGrounds prediction

PSV Eindhoven to win

Model probability 42% · predicted score 2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • PSV Eindhoven strength rating 1670 v NEC 1614
  • PSV Eindhoven away record this season: 3W 0D 2L
  • NEC home form: 0W 4D 2L, 9 scored / 12 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: PSV Eindhoven +15 v NEC -1
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 48%, recent form 47%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. NEC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis