NEC v PSV Eindhoven
18+Eredivisie · Sat 21 Nov, 15:30
Data: excellent
- NEC win
- 33%
- Draw
- 25%
- PSV Eindhoven win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
PSV Eindhoven to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- PSV Eindhoven strength rating 1670 v NEC 1614
- PSV Eindhoven away record this season: 3W 0D 2L
- NEC home form: 0W 4D 2L, 9 scored / 12 conceded
- Superior goal difference: PSV Eindhoven +15 v NEC -1
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 48%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. NEC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 12.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.