AZ Alkmaar v Groningen
18+Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 15:45
Data: excellent
- AZ Alkmaar win
- 51%
- Draw
- 21%
- Groningen win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
AZ Alkmaar to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AZ Alkmaar strength rating 1653 v Groningen 1631
- AZ Alkmaar home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Groningen away form: 2W 2D 1L, 13 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: AZ Alkmaar +8 v Groningen +3
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 42%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Groningen are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model42%
Component disagreement: 13.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.